ODDS ANALYSIS
One day after a confidence-boosting doubleheader sweep of the AL Central-leading Cardinals, the Cubs suffered their worst loss of the season. One out away from taking three of four from the Cards, Pedro Strop surrendered a two-run homer, giving St. Louis the win and series split.
The Cubs have performed well in Wrigley Field this season, going 24-18 up 1.62 units, but they are just 4-3 on their current 10-game homestand. The Cubs tapped St. Louis’ MLB-best pitching staff for 17 runs over the final three games of their series cashing the over in all three.
While the Cubs enter the series after a disappointing loss, the Sox are riding their most impressive run of baseball this season. The Sox blanked Toronto 2-0 behind Jeff Samardzjia on Thursday taking three of four in the series while improving to 7-2 in their last nine up 6.28 units on the moneyline. The Sox have struggled all season to score runs, ranking last in MLB with 3.43 per game, but have done enough recently to get some wins. The under is 6-3 in their last nine games and 46-33-3 overall.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Carlos Rodon (3-2, 4.18 ERA) pitched inconsistently in Sunday’s loss to the Orioles walking four and surrendering four runs (three earned) on four hits in five innings. He went 10 days between his last two starts and labored in both, giving up 12 hits and seven earned runs with 14 strikeouts and seven bases on balls.
It’s start No. 1 in the rivalry for Rodon, who will be making his 11th start and 14th appearance of his rookie season. Rodon has 62 strikeouts over 60.1 innings, but he also has walked 35 and allowed 64 hits for a 1.64 WHIP while opponents bat .277 against him.
Kyle Hendricks (4-4, 3.82 ERA) was on his game in a 2-0 win over Miami on Sunday, tossing 7.1 shutout innings. He earned his fifth quality start of the season, extending past the seventh for the second time this year. He has picked up back-to-back wins without allowing a run after surrendering 10 earned in his prior two starts.
Like Rodon, Hendricks will be making his first start in the rivalry series while holding an 0-2 record in four starts against AL clubs.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“We did so many good things. I can’t walk away and be all upset. Of course, Strop would have liked to make a better pitch there and he didn’t. It happens. Regardless of who it happened against, I’ll keep repeating the refrain that we can play with anybody. We proved it the last four and we’ll continue to move forward.” – Cubs manager Joe Maddon after Wednesday’s 6-5 loss to St. Louis
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
While reliever Jason Motte isn’t the Cubs official closer, the scenario in Wednesday’s series finale against the Cardinals is a spot he likely would’ve found himself in had he not pitched in two games the day before. Motte was unavailable after pitching in both games of Tuesday’s doubleheader, so manager Joe Maddon turned to Pedro Strop, who served up a game-losing two-run homer to Jhonny Peralta in the ninth. Maddon likes the flexibility of using his bullpen in any leverage situation late in games and has no defined roles for his relievers. The strategy has worked so far, with the pen holding a 3.15 ERA, fourth-best in the NL, and its 2.29 mark over the last 30 days is the second-best in baseball – despite Strop’s high-profile blown save. Motte led the NL with 42 saves for a St. Louis team that advanced to the NLCS that year. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2013 and is beginning to separate himself from Strop and Hector Rondon for the ninth-inning role.
PROP TALK
With all the talent on the north side, it’s the south side Sox that have the most destructive offensive force in the city in Jose Abreu. Playing on a team that ranks last in the AL in runs scored and near the bottom in team batting average, Abreu has put up impressive numbers with little support around him in the order. Abreu enters the series batting .294 with 14 home runs and 45 RBIs. He extended his hitting streak to 11 games with a pair singles Thursday and had five hits in 15 at-bats in the cross-town series last season.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
How the Cubs respond after a crushing defeat Wednesday will tell us a lot about where this team is headed. The excitement of a cross-town battle with the Sox should wipe away any disappointment, and facing a struggling Carlos Rodon should keep the runs coming for the north siders. Rodon has been jacked around in the rotation with 10 days between his last two starts making it difficult to get into a groove. Kyle Hendricks has no such problem and going against a weak-hitting club points the arrow in the direction of the Cubs.
Cubs 6, White Sox 2
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