ODDS ANALYSIS
The Cardinals have more to worry about than a doubleheader loss to the Cubs. The team’s bullpen faltered late in both games of Tuesday’s twin bill and their usually reliable defense did them no favors losing 7-4 and 5-3.
It’s hard to imagine the Cards winning at the rate they were – they’re still 24 games over .500 – but losing six of their last nine has them looking human. St. Louis has done the bulk of its damage at Busch Stadium to build the major’s best record, but on the road they are average, going 8-8 over their last 16 away contests. Overall the Cards are 23-19 on the road, up 2.98 units.
The Cubs got the monkey off their back with Tuesday’s sweep, breaking a five-game losing streak to the Cards and getting some much needed offense too. Chicago had some moments offensively, but it was the first time they put up 12 runs in consecutive games since mid-June. The Cubs are 7-2 in nine games since getting swept in St. Louis and are up 4.11 units in that span, allowing just 18 runs while tossing three shutouts. The Cubs scored one run in each of Jason Hammel’s last three starts and the under is 7-1 in his last eight outings.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Michael Wacha (10-3, 2.66 ERA) continued to throw like one of the best pitchers in baseball holding the Padres to one run over seven innings on Friday. He struck out six with one walk and a Jedd Gyorko home run was the only blemish on his line. It was his first home run allowed in his last four starts and the seventh given up this season.
Wacha picked up a win over the Cubs on June 27 allowing a run on six hits over six innings and will shoot for another in his second career start at Wrigley Field. He’s 3-1 with a 2.87 ERA over 31.1 career innings against them.
Jason Hammel (5-4, 2.89 ERA) made two mistakes in his last start and both ended up in the bleachers in a loss to the Marlins on Friday. He tossed seven innings of four-hit ball with five strikeouts, but two solo homers were costly in the 2-1 loss. Hammel has a 1.73 ERA in his last six starts at Wrigley Field, giving up eight earned runs over 41.2 innings.
Hammel gave up a season-high four earned runs on six hits over four innings in his only start against the Cards this season and is 1-3 with a 6.57 ERA over 24.2 innings in five career starts against them.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“With all due respect, I do feel we can play with anybody, I really do. We have to prove it though. We can talk about it. Talk is very cheap. It’s about your actions. For me, and for us, I feel strongly about our group, but we’ve got to prove it.” – Cubs manager Joe Maddon following Tuesday’s doubleheader sweep of the Cardinals
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
Following Tuesday’s doubleheader loss to the Cubs, the Cardinals were more concerned about the health of second baseman Kolten Wong, who exited Game 1 in the seventh inning with a head injury. Wong, who has dazzled defensively with several sparkling plays in the field, suffered the injury after making a leaping catch in shallow right field and hitting his head hard on the turf. He stayed in the game for another inning before leaving. The club would not confirm that Wong passed concussion tests and manager Mike Matheny, whose playing career ended due to concussions, intends to move forward cautiously. Matt Carpenter replaced Wong at second base and started Game 2, putting him at the position where he started 128 games in 2013.
PROP TALK
Look for the shortstops to supply what little offense is expected as both Jhonny Peralta and Starlin Castro have impressive numbers against the opposing starting pitcher. Peralta has been a force in the Cards’ lineup, hitting .297 with 11 home runs this season and is a career .409 hitter against Jason Hammel with two home runs and eight RBIs among his nine hits. Like many of the Cubs hitters Castro has been struggling, but not many can say they have the success against Michael Wacha that he does. Castro is 7 for 14 in his career with a home run and 1.357 OPS off the Cards’ righty.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
As good as Jason Hammel has been for the Cubs this season, Michael Wacha has been better for St. Louis. With a pair of aces matched up runs will be at a premium and this is likely to be a battle of the bullpens. The Cards pen vapor locked in Tuesday’s doubleheader loss giving up a bushel of runs late, but has been strong all season with the lowest ERA in the NL. This game will be decided by the relievers and the Cards win out.
St. Louis 3, Chicago 1
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