Two teams battling for a wild card spot in the National League go head-to-head for the first time this season when the San Francisco Giants visit the Chicago Cubs in the second game of a four-game set. Giants’ pitcher Mike Leake knows Chicago going 9-2 against the Cubs during his days with NL Central rival Cincinnati.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Giants make their last stop on a three-city, 10-game road trip by visiting the Cubs in a critical showdown of wild card contenders. The Giants moved a half game ahead of the Cubs by winning the last two in Atlanta to split the first six games of their trip. But the Giants aren’t thinking about the wild card. They have the top spot in the NL West in their sights and are right behind the Dodgers. San Francisco is rolling in the second half winning 13 of 18 games while going 8-4 on the road.
The Cubs had their six-game winning streak stopped with a loss at Pittsburgh on Wednesday and get back to Wrigley Field where they haven’t had much of a home field advantage. The Cubs won just three of 10 at home before embarking on their trip, and were down 8.64 units in that span. Overall Chicago is 27-24 in the friendly confines in the red 5.87 units on the moneyline and the under is 10-1 in games started by Jon Lester.
PITCHING MATCHUP
You only get one chance to make a first impression and Mike Leake (9-6, 3.52 ERA) made sure his first outing with the Giants was a good one. Leake was saddled with the loss but pitched well, allowing two runs on eight hits over 6.1 innings at Texas. Both runs came across on a Josh Hamilton home run in the sixth inning. He continued a string of strong starts after going 4-1 with a 1.25 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in his last five outings with the Reds.
Leake tossed a gem against the Cubs just two weeks ago in his next to last start with Cincinnati, scattering four hits and a run with six strikeouts over eight innings in a 9-1 win.
Jon Lester (6-8, 3.26 ERA) is back on the bump after inclement weather in Pittsburgh prematurely ended his scheduled start Monday. He’ll pitch with three days between starts after throwing 31 pitches before a postponement. Lester was at his best in July, going 2-2 with a 1.66 ERA and .183 opponent’s batting average over six starts.
Lester is unbeaten in two starts against the Giants with a 0.52 ERA and is facing the defending champs for the first time since 2013 when he was a member of the Red Sox.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“You don’t want to really backlog Jon that much. He fits easily into that Friday, then you give Kyle the extra day, which we like. It just played really well.” – Cubs manager Joe Maddon on moving Jon Lester’s start up a day after an abbreviated outing Monday when he threw just 31 pitches before the game was postponed because of rain.
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
After he struggled through July, Tuesday’s performance could serve as a stepping stone for Chicago’s Starlin Castro. Coming off arguably the worst month of his career at the plate, Castro doubled twice and drove in two runs in a win at Pittsburgh. Seeing the shortstop rope a pair of line-drive two-baggers was a welcome sight for Cubs fans. Castro took his lumps in July with a .170 batting average and .194 on-base percentage. That average is the second-lowest monthly mark he’s ever posted and the on-base percentage was the worst of his career. Despite his struggles, manager Joe Maddon is confident in Castro’s development. “He’s had a history of nice Augusts,” Maddon said. “He’s got some really big hits for us.” Castro is a career .300 hitter in August across 577 at-bats.
PROP TALK
The Cubs are very familiar with new Giants hurler Mike Leake. They squared off many times during Leake’s days with the NL Central rival Cincinnati Reds and will be facing each other for the fifth time this season. Expect to see Chris Coghlan, who’s had all kinds of success against Leake, in the lineup for the Cubs. Coghlan has five hits in 11 at-bats with a double, two home runs, three runs scored and two RBI’s. Coghlan entered the 2015 season a perfect 5 for 5 against Leake and his performance this season dropped his average to .625.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Cubs won’t be seeing anything new when they face Mike Leake, the former Reds hurler who started 19 games against Chicago during his career, including four this season. And the Cubs had success against him at Wrigley, touching him for seven earned runs in 12 innings. The Cubs throw their ace Jon Lester, who’s been magnificent over the last month and a half and looks like the guy the team expected to anchor the rotation.
Chicago 5, San Francisco 2
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