ODDS ANALYSIS
After dropping the first two of their recent six-game homestand the Reds ended it on a positive note winning the final four capped by a sweep of the Phillies. The Reds finished the homestand up 2.0 units, helping their season total that stood in the red 5.89 units following Wednesday’s win. The Reds enter the series as one of the least profitable road teams in the National League going 10-18 down 8.31 units on the monelyline and dropped two of three at Wrigley Field in mid-April.
The Cubs are back home after a 5-4 road trip concluded with a season-high run total in a 12-3 win over Detroit on Wednesday. Chicago is up slightly on the moneyline at home going 15-11 in the black 0.92 units but has been a disaster on the runline at 24-33 down 9.55 units. They’re a strong play behind Kyle Hendricks winning four of his last five starts while scoring 25 runs in that span.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Mike Leake (3-4, 4.29 ERA) wasn’t particularly sharp his last time out yielding two earned runs on 10 hits in six innings but still picked up the win, breaking a string of five consecutive starts without a victory.
Leake’s been average in his two starts against the Cubs this season, posting a 4.50 ERA with 11 hits, four home runs and 13 strikeouts in 14 innings against them. Both starts came back in April and were no-decisions. He’s 8-2 with a 3.19 ERA in 17 career starts against the Cubs
Kyle Hendricks (2-2, 3.96 ERA) lasted just five innings Sunday against the Nationals giving up two earned runs and six hits in a 6-3 win. After posting a 2.81 ERA in five May starts, he’s now 1-1 in June, including his win over the Nats, and has three quality starts in his 11 turns so far and the Cubs would like to see him go deeper in games.
Hendricks takes a 1-0 record and 3.46 ERA into his third career start against the Reds.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“Every day if you don’t give everything you have, you’re going to fail. I love to compete and I love to work. Myself and my teammates view our current record as a competition. And we’re going to do everything we can to right that ship.” – Reds first baseman Joey Votto
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
The Cubs crossed off two games of a 20-games-in-20-days stretch splitting the pair in Detroit and return to Wrigley Field where they should get a boost from a boisterous crowd that will occupy the renovated right field bleachers for the first time this season. Even when the stands in the outfield weren’t open, the Cubs faithful came out in droves and with the team showing a hint of success, the rabid fanatics hungry for a winning club will be more evident. “The fans are always loud, but to kind of surround the field now with fans on both sides, it’s going to be a good feeling. It’s an exciting time for us,” pitcher Jake Arrieta said ahead of the Cubs four-game set with the Reds.
PROP TALK
Joey Votto had one of those games baseball players dream of. Votto belted three home runs on three separate pitches in Tuesday’s 11-2 win at Philadelphia, lifting his season total to 13. Votto stroked a single Wednesday for his 14th hit in 10 games as the Reds completed the sweep and has his average hovering around the .300 mark now after a slump at the end of May saw it dip to .275. Votto enjoys hitting at Wrigley Field, boasting a .301 average with 10 home runs in 62 games there. He hasn’t faced Kyle Hendricks yet, but Votto’s locked in and strokes the ball all over the friendly confines.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Reds are trying to patch a lineup together after learning shortstop Zack Cozart is done for the year with a torn up knee suffered in Wednesday’s game. He joins Marlon Byrd and Devin Mesoraco on the DL with Billy Hamilton and Brandon Phillips missing time with various ailments. The Reds simply don’t have the depth to compete with so many regulars out of the lineup and with the Cubs coming off an offensive display many thought we’d see regularly, Mike Leake could be in for a tough go. Cubs’ starter Kyle Hendricks has improved from a rough start to the year and should handle a weakened Reds lineup.
Chicago 5, Cincinnati 2
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