The Cubs ended the first half of the season with their best record since 2008 and held down the second wild card playoff spot. Not bad for a club that was seen to be at least another year away from contending. The Braves are hoping for better results in the second half after limping into the break with five straight losses.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Even with their star-studded cast of youngsters, the Cubs have been plagued by a weak offense, toiling near the bottom of the National League in runs and batting average. They scored two or fewer runs in 13 of 19 games prior to the break but were able to go 9-10 over that stretch with the under at 12-6-1. The Cubs have won each of Jake Arrieta’s last three starts overall and they are 7-2 in his nine road starts.
Atlanta was hovering around the break-even point most of the first half but fell a season-high five games below .500 with their recent skid. Slugger Freddie Freeman has been shelved since June 18 with a wrist injury and the Braves’ offense has suffered. Atlanta averaged the fewest runs in the majors in his absence and the under was 16-6-1 leading into the break.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Jake Arrieta (10-5, 2.66 ERA) ended his first half with a complete game masterpiece, holding the White Sox to two hits and a run in the 3-1 win. For the fourth time in five games he lasted seven innings and he became the first Cubs pitcher since 2008 to record 10 wins before the All-Star break. He’s 6-1 in his last eight starts allowing just 13 runs across that span with a 2.06 ERA and 0.86 WHIP.
Arrieta seeks better results than his 5.68 ERA and 0-1 record in two starts against the Braves.
Shelby Miller (5-5, 2.38 ERA) concluded his impressive first half with a frustrating outing at Coors Field. He was knocked around for a season-high five runs and 11 hits over five innings in a loss to the Rockies. He has a 4.96 over his last three starts but the strikeout numbers are up with 25 in 16.1 innings. The All-Star hurler has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 14 of his 18 starts and has a 1.94 ERA in eight home starts, but is winless in his last 10 turns.
Miller faced the Cubs five times with four starts during his days with the Cardinals and is 1-0 with a 2.78 ERA across 22.2 innings with five of his 16 hits allowed leaving the yard.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“There’s the old thing about a different bus driver every night – I kind of love that. When a team is going well, you talk about how every night there’s a different hero. That’s what you’re looking for, because you don’t want to lay it on one guy. For us to get this thing done, we’ve got to spread it out.” – Cubs manager Joe Maddon
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
Braves’ first baseman Freddie Freeman will be sidelined longer than originally believed because of a bone bruise in his right wrist. Freeman was initially projected to come off the disabled list immediately after the All-Star break, but the club said the injury is more serious than they thought. With Freeman shelved until the first of August, Atlanta’s chances of making a run in the second half take a huge blow. “He’s working hard to get back but it’s a slow healing injury and it still gives him pain when he swings,” club president John Hart said. Freeman, who last played on June 17, is hitting .299/.367/.520 with 12 home runs and 41 RBIs in 66 games. Despite missing the past 23 games, the two-time All-Star still leads the team in homers and is second in RBIs. Without Freeman in the lineup the Braves rank 29th in the majors with 2.78 runs per game since June 18.
PROP TALK
A club full of talented youngsters needs a veteran leader to guide them through the rigors of a grueling season. It also helps if that vet can play, and Cubs’ outfielder Chris Denorfia has proven he can do that. In his first season with the Cubs Denorfia has played all three outfield positions and is a consistent contributor at the plate with a .305 average. He has the most hits of any current Chicago player off Shelby Miller going 3 for 4 with a double and a stolen base off the Braves ace.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
With all the outstanding first half pitching performances in the majors, one guy that is overlooked and underrated is Cubs righty Jake Arrieta, who’s putting together a Cy Young-type season. He wasn’t expected to be the ace with Jon Lester inking a large free agent deal, but Arrieta has evolved into that role and has been nasty all season. Atlanta’s Shelby Miller has struggled lately and without Freddie Freeman’s bat in the lineup, the Braves’ margin for error is slim.
Chicago 4, Atlanta 2
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