Both the Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles have scuffled a bit as the non-waiver trading deadline draws near, leading to speculation that each could be sellers, rather than buyers.
Despite that, both seem to be looking to add talent rather than shed it though it’s the Orioles with their 49-49 record that seem to be in a slightly better position than the Tigers who check in at 48-51.
ODDS ANALYSIS
With three straight wins, the Orioles have improved their positioning as the month of July winds down. The Birds are now at a meager total money loss of $205 compared to the Tigers’ more prolific -$641.
The O’s are also entering the four game series, set to kick off on Thursday, with more confidence having snapped a four game losing skid, taking a three game series against the Rays over the weekend and starting the week out right with a win over the Braves.
The Tigers, on the other hand, have dropped back-to-back games and four of their last five as their decline continues.
The Orioles also have an additional edge when you consider they beat the Tigers in two of three games in Detroit earlier this month and are 30-19 at home while the Tigers are just 23-24 on the road.
PITCHING MATCHUP
In an effort to stop the bleeding, the Tigers will send Alfredo Simon to the mound to kick off the weekend series in Baltimore.
Simon made his major league debut for the Orioles back in 2008 and pitched for them through 2011. He will face them for the first time in this game.
The 34-year old right-hander is having a subpar season compared to his breakout campaign of a year ago. The veteran is 9-6, but his ERA is inflated at 4.46 and his WHIP is 1.459 thanks to 3.2 walks per nine innings and 10 hits per nine.
Simon’s coming off a six inning, one-run game, but before that had allowed at least four runs in each of his previous six outings.
Based on pure numbers, the Orioles have the edge in this matchup with Miguel Gonzalez slated to toe the rubber.
The 31-year old righty from Mexico has been a solid performer for the Birds since making his debut in 2012. Overall, he owns a 3.56 ERA through 93 games. This year, he’s 9-6 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.226 WHIP in 106 innings spread over his 18 starts.
Two starts ago, he held the Tigers to just two runs in five innings. In his last outing, he allowed just a single run in seven and two-third innings against the Rays.
QUOTE TO NOTE
A 5-2 loss to the Rays on Monday has helped dig a bigger hole for the Tigers. After the game, Brad Ausmus tried to remain positive, saying:
“It’s never fun when you’re not playing the way you expect to play, but we’ll come back tomorrow. Like I said, we’re not throwing in the towel.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
Offensively, the Tigers seem to have the slight edge, averaging 4.46 runs per game compared to the Orioles’ 4.32, though Detroit has struggled to score over their last five games, plating a total of just 10 runs.
Of course, some of that downturn is due to Miguel Cabrera’s injury. The slugging first baseman is a key part of the Tigers’ lineup, but is currently on the disabled list, taking his 1.034 OPS out of the equation.
Still, even without him, the team has the offense to compete. J.D. Martinez is having a huge year with a .887 OPS and 27 home runs. In addition to him, Detroit also has Jose Iglesias hitting .315, Yoenis Cespedes supplying 16 homers, and several other solid players like Ian Kinsler, Victor Martinez and even catcher James McCann who boasts a .760 OPS.
Much like the Tigers, the O’s offense has cooled off some, too. They did manage 10 combined runs in the last two games of their weekend set in St. Petersburg, but scored just two in 11-innings on Monday and have scored more than three runs in just three of their last 11 games.
The team has three legitimate bats in Manny Machado, Chris Davis and Adam Jones and fill in the holes from there. Machado’s the team’s best player this year with a .878 OPS and 21 home runs while Jones is hitting a solid .288 and Davis leads the team in home runs and RBI with 22 and 60 respectively.
Outside of those three, Jonathan Schoop does have a .823 OPS, but has played in just 25 games. Similarly, Nolan Reimold’s OPS is .785 in just 26 games of action. The rest of the team has an OPS below Matt Wieters .707.
PROP TALK
Keep an eye on Tigers’ slugger Yoenis Cespedes against Gonzalez. The outfielder is 5 for 11 in his career against the righty. Interestingly, another player to watch—should he get the start—is Rajai Davis. The speedy outfielder is not known for power, but he’s 4 for 12 against Gonzalez with three home runs.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The teams have had similar struggles, but the Orioles have begun to turn things around and are playing at home. That gives them the edge. Of course, on top of that, they also boast a superior defense having committed just 39 errors—the fewest in the sport—and have a much better bullpen.
The Orioles pen is fifth in baseball with a 2.82 ERA and has two All-Star pitchers in closer Zach Britton with a 1.77 ERA and 25 saves and setup man Darren O’Day with a 1.43 ERA while the Tigers’ bullpen ERA is an inflated 4.13.
Baltimore 5, Detroit 3
The MLB odds for this game will be available first at BookMaker Sportsbook. BookMaker is going to have multiple betting options available for this nationally-televised baseball matchup. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, individual inning run totals and next hitter results. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! First pitch for the game between the Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles is scheduled for Thursday, July 30, 2015, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. You can watch the contest live on the MLB Network.
