The Detroit Tigers sit at 47-47 and while disappointing, they’re in much better position than the Boston Red Sox who sit nine games under .500 at 42-53. Sunday’s series finale will represent two teams that have cost bettors money with the Tigers total moneyline at -$297 and the Red Sox’s at -$1,750.
ODDS ANALYSIS
After a solid run in late June through the first part of July, the Red Sox had gotten themselves back into the fringes of the playoff picture, but the team has once again gone into a tailspin, having dropped seven straight and eight of their last nine.
Most of Boston’s losing streak has occurred on the road. They return home this weekend and will hope Fenway Park helps turn things around. Boston is, after all, a much more respectable 22-23 at home compared to a 20-30 on the road.
The Tigers, on the other hand, have also struggled of late, dropping six of their last nine games, forcing them to start considering selling at the trade deadline, but they’re 22-21 as visitors.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Shane Greene gets the start for the Red Sox on national television this Sunday as he tries to rediscover the form that saw him pitch to a 3.78 ERA in New York last year and the same form he had in his first three starts with Detroit.
Since then, however, Greene has been horrible. The 26-year old right-hander is lost on the mound. He’s just 4-7 with a 6.52 ERA and 1.461 WHIP in 77 1/3 innings in the majors this year. His FIP is 5.03 indicating that he has been a bit unlucky, but he’s still giving up 10.4 hits per nine innings.
All in all, he isn’t fooling anyone. He did retire eight straight Mariners in his last start, but Seattle is hardly a great offense and he still allowed five runs on six hits in four and two-thirds innings.
On the other side, the Red Sox have yet to announce who will start for them on Sunday. Eduardo Rodriguez is supposed to go on Saturday after his rough last outing and Steven Wright and Brian Johnson are both no longer on the team.
The Boston rotation is in shambles. Overall, the rotation has a 4.88 ERA this year and that is with solid numbers from now-injured Clay Buchholz.
The most likely starter to get the nod on Sunday is probably Steven Wright. He was the 26th man for the double header earlier this week so he is eligible to be recalled. The 30-year old right-hander is 3-3 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.303 WHIP, but the knuckleballer is the best the Sox have to fill the position.
QUOTE TO NOTE
After the team’s latest loss on Wednesday, Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia spoke about the team’s struggles and lack of answers saying:
“We just haven’t put it together. That’s basically it. When we get guys on, haven’t been able to find a way to get ‘em in.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
That is certainly true for the Sox’s offense. Pedroia himself who, when healthy, has been one of the team’s more consistent players was mired in an 0 for 20 slump until Wednesday night.
In all, despite key offseason acquisitions, the Boston offense is mediocre at best, averaging 4.05 runs per game. Pedroia, slump aside, is solid with a .774 OPS and Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts are starting to put things together. Bogaerts’ average is up to .311 and Betts’ OPS is at .759, but David Ortiz is not the player he once was, Mike Napoli is hitting below the Mendoza-line and Pablo Sandoval isn’t nearly as good as advertised.
When Alejandro De Aza has been a savior since joining your team, you know something is wrong.
On the other side, the Tigers are struggling with many facets of their game, from the bullpen to inconsistent starters, but the offense is still a strength.
The team is averaging 4.59 runs per game, second only to the Toronto Blue Jays and they have scored nine runs in each of their last two games, even without Miguel Cabrera on the field.
Of course, Cabrera is a huge loss, but the team still has J.D. Martinez who is having a huge season with a .903 OPS along with Yoenis Cespedes who adds additional power and Victor Martinez, Ian Kinsler and others who provide quality at bats.
PROP TALK
For individual prop bets, most hitters are good bets given the pitching matchup, but Bogaerts in particular is a guy to watch. The young shortstop is 2 for 4 against Greene in his career with a home run.
J.D. Martinez is also a great option for a multi-hit game and/or a long ball. The budding superstar is having his best month of the year as he continually gets better. In July, he’s hitting .324 with a 1.057 OPS.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Offense, offense and more offense is the name of the game here. Greene has struggled all year and Wright is nothing more than a fill-in for the Sox. Add in the Tigers’ poor bullpen outside of Joakim Soria which has a 4.04 ERA and things get even worse.
The Red Sox don’t have that great a pen either with a collective 3.81 ERA.
Look for the offenses to make or break this one which is great news for the offensively minded Tigers who have more firepower, even without Miggy, than the Sox.
Detroit 9, Boston 6
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