In what was originally supposed to be a battle to the finish in the AL Central, the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers kick off a three game set on Monday with the Royals at 63-43 atop the division with an impressive $1,864 money total and the Tigers slipping into oblivion at 52-55 with a cumulative moneyline of -$450 and fresh off firing their longtime general manager.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Tigers sold at the deadline which sparked the departure of Dave Dombrowski, but interestingly have gone 2-2 since, splitting the first of two against the Royals in Detroit.
After the weekend, these teams will meet up again in Kansas City. The venue is not overly important to the Tigers who are 26-28 at home and 26-27 on the road.
The Royals, on the other hand, are much better at home and should benefit from a change of scenery for their rematch. They’re 34-18 at home this year and will welcome the home cooking after going 4-5 through the first nine games of their road trip.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Monday is Johnny Cueto time for the Royals as he makes his home debut. The newly acquired Royals ace is winless in two starts since changing his red for royal blue.
In his two starts has thrown 13 innings, allowing five runs on 12 hits and four walks while striking out nine. On the year, he’s 7-7 with a 2.69 ERA and 0.961 WHIP in 143 2/3 innings of work.
Interestingly, Cueto has already pitched against the Tigers twice this year, once as a Royal and once as a Red. His last start was against Detroit and he lasted seven innings, giving up just a pair of runs, but took the loss.
On the other side, Matt Boyd got the start and the win against Cueto and the Royals on Wednesday, but it’s undecided if he gets the start on Monday or if the nod goes to Justin Verlander or Buck Farmer instead.
Detroit is using a number of different starter options as they piece together a rotation with David Price in Toronto.
If Boyd does get the start, it will be just his second of the year for Detroit and fourth overall. He started two games for Toronto before being part of the Price deal and allowed 11 runs in six and two-thirds innings.
Meanwhile, neither Verlander nor Farmer are better options. Farmer owns an 8.50 ERA in 18 innings at the big league level and Verlander’s is at 5.05 as he struggles with command.
QUOTE TO NOTE
In Cueto’s last start, he pitched well enough to win and his teammates recognize that. First baseman Eric Hosmer spoke to that after the game, saying:
“He kept us in the game. As an offense, we have to do a better job. We have to try and find ways to produce runs. All we ask for is for him to go out, eat up innings and keep us in the game, and he did a good job of that.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
Hosmer hit the nail on the head with the offense. They need to take it up a notch as they’ve scored two runs or fewer in five of their last eight games and have seen Mike Moustakas and Salvador Perez, among others, go ice cold.
What made the offense so good early was its depth. The team had a quality bat at nearly every position. Now, they have Ben Zobrist hitting well in place of the injured Alex Gordon, but Cain has four hits in his last 21 at bats, both Perez and Moustakas have been under the Mendoza line for the better part of a month and Omar Infante and Alex Rios both have a sub-.600 OPS.
The Royals need someone other than Zobrist and Hosmer to start hitting again.
Detroit, meanwhile, was one of the league’s most prolific offenses, but they shipped Yoenis Cespedes and his 18 home runs to New York and have Miguel Cabrera and his 1.034 OPS on the disabled list.
In the four games since Cespedes left, the team has struggled to score. They put up six against the O’s on August 2, but managed just five total runs in their other three games.
The Tigers still have J.D. Martinez and his .902 OPS, but other than him, Victor Martinez is not producing like he did last year, Ian Kinsler is solid, though unspectacular and is now a middle of the order hitter.
The team is also turning to below average hitters to replace Miggy and Cespedes with Alex Avila and his .173 average getting a bulk of at bats at first and Rajai Davis getting more starts in the outfield. Davis does have a .721 OPS, but his .310 OBP doesn’t fully utilize his above average speed.
PROP TALK
Given the team’s slumps, steer clear of all Royals players in prop bets outside of Hosmer and Zobrist. The duo’s hitting well and Zobrist is even providing some pop with three home runs since his acquisition.
On the other side, keep an eye on Kinsler. The Tigers don’t have too many at bats against Cueto, but in limited action he’s seen the ball well, going 2 for 6 with a double and a triple.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Tigers have a weakened offense and are going up against one of baseball’s true aces. They managed a win last time, but that was thanks to a strong outing by a starter making his third big league start. Don’t look for Boyd—or anyone else—to repeat that, given the numbers of those pitchers that are options for Detroit.
Meanwhile, the Royals should start seeing some of their slumping players break out of it. Even if they don’t, Kansas City has enough to piece together a few runs against a questionable starter and a bullpen that dealt away their closer and now has just one reliable arm in Alex Wilson.
Kansas City 5, Detroit 3
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