It is the Minnesota Twins (46-39, $1,560) that have the upper hand in this matchup as they have been the most lucrative team to bet on in the American League. They also sit in second place in the AL Central, several games up on the Detroit Tigers (43-41, -$42) who are now without Miguel Cabrera for the foreseeable future.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Saturday will be the third game in a four game set to close out the first half. Prior to this series, these teams have already met nine times this year with the Tigers winning seven of those nine games despite a worse overall record.
Of course, six of the nine games were played in the Motor City, though the Tigers did take two of three in the only series at Target Field.
Overall, the Tigers are pretty good on the road, going 21-18 overall after taking two of three in Seattle. Over their last six games, the Tigers have won four.
On the other side, the Twins just completed a three game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles and are 28-15 at home.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Phil Hughes has already been announced as the Twins’ starter on Saturday while the Tigers haven’t announced their pitcher, but it is Alfredo Simon’s turn.
Hughes is not having quite as good of a season as last year where he captured 16 wins and had a 3.52 ERA.
Nevertheless, the 29-year old right-hander still leads Minnesota in innings with 111 2/3 and is a respectable 7-6 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.236 WHIP.
All in all, he has been a bit too hittable this year. He’s walking just 0.9 batters per nine innings, showing solid control, but has struggled with command in the strike zone. He leads the league in hits (127) and home runs allowed (21).
Over his last six starts, he has thrown five quality starts, while holding the Orioles to just two runs in six and a third innings in his last outing. Of course, even then, he allowed nine hits and two home runs.
Alfredo Simon isn’t nearly as easy to homer off of, but he does allow quite a few more free passes.
Simon’s WHIP is higher than Hughes thanks to those walks and sits at 1.392, though his ERA is 4.18.
The 34-year old right-hander did well in his first full season as a starter last year with the Reds, but did slide to the finish line. He has been inconsistent this year through 97 innings, but has allowed only 10 home runs.
QUOTE TO NOTE
Injuries are part of the game, but the Tigers suffered a huge blow in losing Miguel Cabrera. The former MVP is still the centerpiece of that offense. On the year he has a 1.034 OPS with 15 home runs and 54 RBIs.
Manager Brad Ausmus admitted it was a huge, loss, but seems confident he has the offense to overcome it, saying:
“When you lose the best hitter on the planet, it’s a huge blow. We’re going to have to find a way to get it done without him, at least for the next month and a half or so. We still have a very good offense.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
Even without Cabrera, the offense is quite good. J.D. Martinez is having another huge season and leads the team in home runs (24) and RBIs (58). Between him, Victor Martinez and Yoenis Cespedes, the team still has power in the middle.
Add in a bit of speed from Anthony Gose (13 steals), a .324 average from Jose Iglesias and a solid .331 OBP from Ian Kinsler and the team should still be able to score runs. After all, on the year, the Tigers are fifth in runs with 382.
On the other side, the Twins have scored 21 fewer runs, though with Miggy out of the fold, these two offenses rank out much closer.
In general, the Twinkies are reliant on a team approach at the plate. Outside of Brian Dozier (.851 OPS), the team doesn’t really have a huge offensive force, instead, they have a lot of good players. Perhaps the exception to that is newly promoted designated hitter Miguel Sano.
The youngster has a ton of pop and is hitting .455 in his first seven games with a home run and a 1.253 OPS.
PROP TALK
Nobody is happier Cabrera is out of the lineup than Hughes. Miggy is 17 for 36 against him with five home runs. Without him in the lineup, the player with the most success is Yoenis Cespedes.
Look to the Cuban slugger as a good prop bet considering he is 6 for 12 against Hughes with five extra base hits and a 1.705 OPS.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Detroit still has the more prolific offense, and while I trust Hughes a bit more than Simon, the difference is minimal considering each possess similar ERAs this season.
Meanwhile, in the bullpen, the Tigers have gotten a lot of grief over the last few years, but Joakim Soria (2.41 ERA) has solidified the closer role and Alex Wilson (2.15 ERA) and Blaine Hardy (2.50 ERA) have done well to help close the gap.
Detroit 5, Minnesota 4
The MLB lines for this contest will first be released by BookMaker Sportsbook. Gamble on the game between every half inning with BookMaker’s live betting feature. Along with an adjusted in-game moneyline, you can wager on what will happen in the next at-bat or how many runs will be scored in the next inning. Live betting is the most exciting way to play!
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here so start betting with BookMaker today! The ballgame pitting the Detroit Tigers versus the Minnesota Twins will commence Saturday, July 11, 2015, at 4:05 p.m. ET at Target Field. The contest will be televised nationally on FS1.
