ODDS ANALYSIS
Following a stretch of six wins in seven games the Diamondbacks ran into a buzz saw in the St. Louis Cardinals, getting swept in three games to start their six-game road trip. They look for more success when they take on the Brewers, who were swept by the Giants, falling for the fifth straight time with Wednesday’s 3-1 loss.
Arizona was thinking happy thoughts after a four-game sweep at Miami and a series win at home against the Cubs last weekend. A trip to St. Louis changed that in a hurry. Even after getting swept in St. Louis the Dbacks are 6-4 in their last 10, but they were rolling prior to that, up 5.9 units on the moneyline during their successful stretch playing every game as the underdog. The under is 7-3 in Arizona’s 10 road games entering this series and 5-3 in Jeremy Hellickson’s eight starts this season.
Milwaukee enters the series with the worst record in baseball and is the least profitable team in the National League. Wednesday’s loss was the Brewers fifth straight at home, dropping them to 8-18 at Miller Park, down 5.6 units in that span. The Brewers have been a money pit this season, in the red 15.36 units on the moneyline through their first 48 games. They exceeded the total in two of three games with the Giants and the over is 15-10-1 in Milwaukee’s 26 home games.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Arizona’s Jeremy Hellickson (2-3, 5.33 ERA) allowed three runs on four hits in 6.2 innings to get the win Sunday over the Cubs. His last two outings have been his best this year working a combined 12.2 innings with just five runs allowed. He’s allowed at least one home run in each of his last five starts not going more than 6.2 innings.
Hellickson took the loss in his only career start against the Brewers giving up two runs on three hits and a home run in six innings.
Milwaukee’s Kyle Lohse (3-5, 5.80 ERA) allowed five runs in 5.1 innings in a loss to the Giants on Monday. He limited SF to one run over the first five frames but was pulled after allowing four straight batters to reach base in what was a seven-run inning.
Lohse is 4-3 with a 4.46 ERA in 13 career starts against the Dbacks, surrendering 79 hits and nine home runs with 47 strikeouts in 78.2 innings.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“We’re going through a time right now where were just not getting the hits when we need them. We’re not making the pitches when we need them. If these guys weren’t battling it would be different. But all these guys are battling.” – Pitcher Mike Fiers after the Brewers’ 3-2 loss to the Giants on Wednesday, their fifth straight
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
The Brewers are back to doing what they’ve done for most of the season – not score runs. Following Wednesday’s loss to the Giants, their fifth straight and seventh in eight games, Milwaukee is again struggling on offense in averaging barely three runs a game during the stretch. The Brewers own the worst team batting average and on-base percentage in the majors while scoring 3.7 runs per game. However, not all is bleak as the Brewers have slugged 47 home runs and face Jeremy Hellickson, who’s given up seven dingers in his last 28.1 innings pitched. If the Brewers are to emerge from a hitting slumber this is the time to do it.
PROP TALK
Arizona’s Paul Goldschmidt has triple-crown tools and could very well capture the coveted trophy someday. A career .295 hitter, Goldschmidt is having his finest season so far. He enters the weekend leading the team with a .329 average, 12 home runs and 38 RBIs. After an injury-plagued 2014 season, Goldschmidt is healthy and doing what the Dbacks expect him to do in the middle of the order – hit for power and drive in runs. He’s feasted on Milwaukee pitching with a .459 lifetime average at Miller Park with four of his five career home runs against the Brewers there. There’s a good chance Goldy gets a few hits and RBIs off Kyle Lohse.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
It’s not often a team gets swept in a series and leaves feeling good about it. But that’s the case with the Dbacks after losing three straight in St. Louis. They went toe-to-toe with the best team in the NL and could have very easily won all three. A good sign with bad results and unfortunately this is a results driven business. The Dbacks have improved with Yasmany Tomas playing much better and sluggers Paul Goldschmidt and Mark Trumbo injury-free so far. The pitching is still suspect and new closer Enrique Burgos went on the DL putting the back end of the bullpen in flux.
The Brewers offense will get a lift with the return of shortstop Jean Segura to the lineup. He is set to come off the 15-day DL after a finger injury and his stick in the order should be a boost to a team that has the major’s worst team batting average. He’s also a better option defensively than the players who filled in for him, so that’s a plus. But there are no arms coming in to save a staff that has a 4.57 ERA. The Brewers might score more runs when Segura and Jonathan Lucroy get back in the lineup but they still allow an awful lot.
Arizona 6, Milwaukee 4
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