ODDS ANALYSIS
The in-state rivals renew their I-70 Series this weekend when St. Louis visits Kansas City with both teams perched atop their respective divisions, sparking memories of 30 years ago when the clubs met in a dramatic seven-game World Series.
The Cardinals built such a cushion in the NL Central that a recent stretch of five wins in 12 games hasn’t cost them much in the standings. The Cards fell 5-0 to the Mets on Thursday, splitting the four-game set. St. Louis is down 0.23 units in its 12-game run but has been a profitable wager for the year in the black 11.3 units on the moneyline and 12 units on the runline. The Cards cashed the under seven times in their last 11 games and are 22-18-1 on the season.
Off to their best start in franchise history the Royals have been a profitable wager on the moneyline up 11.56 units after sweeping a two-game interleague set with Cincinnati. KC won four of its first five on this eight-game homestand and is up 2.88 units. The Royals are a better bet on the runline where they’re in the black 18.18 units this season. The over is just 2-3 in KC’s homestand but the Royals have played over the total in three of Danny Duffy’s last four starts.
PITCHING MATCHUP
John Lackey (2-2, 2.96 ERA) held the Mets to one run over seven innings in a no-decision Monday as the Cards lost in 14 innings. He allowed just three hits without a walk and pitched to one batter over the minimum on 76 pitches. He’s finished at least seven innings in half of his eight starts and has allowed just one run in three of his last four starts.
Lackey is 3-4 with a 3.54 ERA in 10 lifetime starts against the Royals surrendering eight home runs in 68.2 innings however he hasn’t faced KC since the 2013 season.
Danny Duffy (2-3, 5.87 ERA) pitched through five innings Saturday giving up four runs on four hits with four walks in a loss to the Yankees and will need to show improvement to keep his spot in the rotation. He’s allowed at least four earned runs in each of his last three outings without pitching past the fifth inning.
Duffy’s tossed 9.2 innings over two lifetime starts with a 1-0 record and 14 strikeouts against the Cards. He allowed one hit in six shutout innings in his last start against the Cards, picking up a 6-0 win on June 2, 2014.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“We saw some improvement. We’re going to have to see more in his next start. Before, he was overthrowing everything. He couldn’t command his breaking stuff or his fastball because he was just raring back and throwing. But last night he stayed more within himself and he had pretty good command of his secondary stuff.” – Royals manager Ned Yost after Danny Duffy’s last outing.
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
An injury to closer Greg Holland and a Kelvin Herrera suspension forced Royals manager Ned Yost to mix and match his bullpen pieces and it didn’t faze the club. Wade Davis slid into the closers role while Holland was shelved and Jason Frasor and Ryan Madson handled the seventh inning chores during Herrera’s absence and the team continued to shut down opponents in the later stages. Now the club has more weapons in an already stingy group of bullpen personnel allowing Yost the freedom to choose whomever he wants to get the opponent out. And when starters know they only need to toss six solid innings for a win, there’s less strain in that department as well.
PROP TALK
The Roylas have the best hitting team in baseball with six regulars hitting .290 or better. The group is led by Mike Moustakas, whose .342 average entering the series is almost 100 points higher than his career mark. Moose enters the series on a hot streak after collecting three hits in each of the two games in an interleague set with Cincinnati and has three or more hits four times in his last 10 games. He’s enjoyed facing St. Louis in this rivalry series with a .333 lifetime averaged pounding out 18 hits and three home runs in 54 at-bats. Moose gets the best of John Lackey for a few hits on Saturday.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
We didn’t expect the Cardinals to play as well for the entire season as they did during the first month, it’s just impossible to do. And now they’ve hit a little rough patch with seven losses in 12 games. Faced with some adversity for the first time all season we’ll see how the Cards respond. Good pitching gets teams out of slumps and the Cards have the best staff in baseball with John Lackey, who’s been brilliant with a 1.73 ERA over his last four starts, getting the call.
Enjoying the best start in franchise history the Royals show no signs of letting up. They have the major’s best hitting team with six regulars batting .290 or higher and a shutdown bullpen that locks up games after the sixth inning. But getting to the seventh inning with a lead in Danny Duffy starts has been problematic and the lefty is close to losing his spot in the rotation. Look for Duffy to respond with a solid outing and the Royals get to Lackey with enough run support to get the win.
Kansas City 5, St. Louis 4
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