ODDS ANALYSIS
The Dodgers go for a split of the four-game series after beating the Cubs 5-2 on Wednesday. LA dropped the first two games and had lost seven of nine before the win, keeping the Dodgers in first place for at least another day.
The teams cashed the under for the third straight game and the under is 8-3-1 in LA’s last 12 games overall. The win also broke LA’s four-game road losing streak, improving their record away from Dodger Stadium to 13-20 in the red 12.81 units. The Dodgers have lost two straight games started by Carlos Frias and are 2-6 in his last eight turns with the under 3-1-1 in his last five.
The Cubs lost for the first time in five games and failed to capitalize after a pair of wins against LA aces Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Chicago is the first team to beat LA in back-to-back games with Kershaw and Greinke throwing in 14 lifetime situations. Their 5-2 loss on Wednesday ended a four-game winning streak. The under is 2-8-1 in Chicago’s last 11 games. The Cubs have won the last two games started by Jon Lester, though he failed to get the decision. The under is 3-0 in his Lester’s last three starts, and 7-3 in his last 10.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Carlos Frías (4-5, 4.68 ERA) had a rough outing in a loss to the Giants on Saturday, allowing six runs on five hits over 5.1 innings with a pair of home runs. He’s struggled in recent starts posting a 0-3 record and 5.25 ERA in his last four. Frias pitches to contact – averaging 5.1 strikeouts per nine innings – but opponents are hitting .302 against him this season.
Frias makes his first career start against the Cubs after two relief stints produced three runs in 3.1 innings. He’s 2-2 with a 2.96 ERA over 24.1 innings on the road this season.
Jon Lester (4-5, 3.80 ERA) held the Twins to one run on three hits and struck out seven in 6.1 innings getting a no-decision on Saturday to remain winless in his last six starts despite pitching well. He’s given up two runs over 13.1 innings in his last two outings, but was pulled in both games with the score tied. His last win was at Wrigley Field on May 16.
Lester gave up a run on three hits with six strikeouts over 7.1 innings in a 4-2 win at Dodger Stadium in his only appearance against LA on Aug. 24, 2013.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“I never want to come out of a game. That’s the way I’ve always been. I don’t want to leave games. That’s why you have managers and pitching coaches to make those decisions for you. I may not be happy at the time, but I’ll never second-guess the manager on what he’s trying to do.” – Cubs’ pitcher Jon Lester after leaving his last outing with 102 pitches in 6.1 innings.
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
The Cubs are reaching heights not seen in several years on the north side and their success in close games is a major reason. Chicago improved to 8-3 in extra inning games while winning their major league-high 18th one-run game with Tuesday’s 1-0, 10-inning win over Los Angeles. It was also Chicago’s ninth walk-off win this season, also most in the Major Leagues. The Cubs have won each of their last three extra-inning games and are 6-2 in their last eight one-run games. “You have to take things. Nobody gives you anything here,” manager Joe Maddon said. “You’ve got to take things, so I love the way our guys are going about their business.”
PROP TALK
The play of Justin Turner has impressed the Dodgers’ brass so much the team was able to deal incumbent third baseman Juan Uribe after a disappointing start to the year. Turner has been good defensively, but his offense has been a huge boost to the team that struggles to score on the road. Turner collected his first hit against the Cubs this season with a monstrous three-run homer on Wednesday, eclipsing the teams run total from the previous two games with one swing of the bat. Turner’s homer was his fifth in nine games and ninth of the year. He’s hitting a cool .325 for the year with 32 RBIs and seems to enjoy hitting in the third spot in the order.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
For a division leader the Dodgers have been awful on the road this season and they are hopeful Wednesday’s win can turn things around for them away from Dodger Stadium. Improved play on the road is a must for LA with the Giants nipping at their heels for the top spot in the NL West. Carlos Frias gets the nod against Cubs’ ace Jon Lester in what appears to be a mismatch on paper. But, as we all know, the games aren’t played on paper, they’re contested between the lines. LA’s bats need to awaken soon and today’s the day against Chicago’s disappointing ace. The Dodgers even their record on this important 10-game road trip.
Los Angeles 4, Chicago 3
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