To say that things are falling apart at the seams for the Boston Red Sox (27-33 SU, -12.14 Units) is a bit of an understatement. The team hasn't been pitching well, and the batting order has started to decay in recent weeks to the point that John Farrell has had to make some drastic changes to his lineup.
That could bode well for the Atlanta Braves (29-30 SU, +3.03 Units), who could be catching the men from Beantown right at the right time for this four-game home-and-home series.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Rick Porcello hasn't been the only reason the Red Sox have stunk this year, but he has been a major part of the problem. Boston's pitchers are terrible; you don't need any fancy schmancy stats to see that. Porcello was brought in to be the ace of that rotation, and he has been anything but.
The righty is just 4-6 with a 5.26 ERA this year. His split of strikeouts to walks of 60/18 is good, but the fact of the matter is that he is consistently putting his team behind the 8-ball.
Porcello allowed at least two runs through the first three innings in his last three starts, and he has allowed at least four runs in his first five innings in three of his last four.
Clearly, if the former Detroit Tiger can get through the order the first time, he might be alright. History has shown that to be the case. That said, don't be surprised if you're a Red Sox backer and you're behind in the early innings, something that the team has not been able to come back from.
Williams Perez came up to the bigs in April as a reliever, but ever since he has worked into the starting rotation, he has been borderline unhittable for the Braves.
He did give up four runs in just a third of an inning in his first outing in the majors, so that is skewing his total numbers, but that gives even more credence to his 2.67 ERA.
If there's a concern that we have for Perez, it is that he didn't pitch all that well at the end of his last start, and he definitely tired out. He threw over 100 pitches in his previous three outings, and that could be an opening for live bettors when he starts to get near that number on Monday.
ADVANCED STATS
Farrell's shakeup of the lineup included benching David Ortiz on Wednesday. It should be noted that Ortiz was sat down against a lefty, so he probably will play on Monday night against Perez, but there are still some real concerns here.
Ortiz is batting just .219 this year, and he is slugging just .372, well off of his career averages. Normally speaking, we would point to that and a .234 BABIP and suggest that Ortiz should improve over the course of the rest of this year, but at 39 years old, we have to wonder if he is done.
TALKING BULLPENS
Atlanta's bullpen has gotten into some trouble of late. On Thursday against San Diego, it took five relievers to get through one inning, one which saw the pen walk three different men. None of the runs scored were charged to the bullpen, as they all went to the starter, Julio Teheran, but this is becoming a disturbing trend.
Jason Grilli has lived on the edge of saves and blown saves for weeks. He has allowed two runs and five hits over his last five innings of work, and he has needed at least 23 pitches to close out three of those five frames.
Clearly, the Braves need some help in their bullpen right now, but that help isn't coming. We're not that confident in the Boston bats either, but the Atlanta arms at the back of the bullpen might be scarier for live betting purposes.
The MLB lines for this Monday contest will first be released by BookMaker Sportsbook. Gamble on the game between every half inning with BookMaker's live betting feature. Along with an adjusted in-game moneyline, you can wager on what will happen in the next at-bat or how many runs will be scored in the next inning. Live betting is the most exciting way to play!
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