In a year where run production is way down across the major leagues, the St. Louis Cardinals (24-10 SU, +12.79 Units) and the Detroit Tigers (21-14 SU, +5.03 Units) are two sides who can really put a charge into the baseball. Live bettors should take note of that with a potentially soft pitching matchup on deck for ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Any time you see a pitcher come out with an eephus pitch, you have to wonder whether you've got a legitimate starter or not.
Alfredo Simon sure has the stats for a legitimate starter at 4-1 with a 3.05 ERA, and it isn't a mistake that he made the All-Star Game last season after a great first half of the year.
Of course, it also isn't a mistake that the Reds made no effort to retain him in the offseason and let him go to Detroit. Still, there's a lot we don't like here about Simon. He doesn't strike out enough batters and allows a ton of contact, and that could get him into real trouble against a St. Louis team which has a weighted on base average of .319.
Lance Lynn gets a ton of strikeouts to his credit, but we aren't so sure about him either. He has allowed at least five runs in two of his last four starts, and there doesn’t seem to be any degree of consistency to his game.
So while that 11.10 K/9, the fourth best mark in the bigs amongst qualified starters is impressive, what isn't impressive is a 3.05 BB/9 rate and his insanely low 0.44 home runs allowed per nine innings stat. There will be some regression here for sure, and the mashers in the Detroit lineup could be the ones to take advantage of that.
Live bettors will need to keep this all in mind, especially in situations where there are power hitters coming up to the plate in the next inning, as that might be the time to back either side in live betting.
ADVANCED STATS
Miguel Cabrera jacked two homers on Wednesday afternoon against the Twins, and there are signs that he could just be getting warmed up. An ISO of .200 is laughable right now for Miggy. This is a man who, up until last season, was always in at least the .270s year in and year out.
We're not saying that the man from 2012 or 2013 is going to be walking through those doors for the Tigers, but surely, we can expect better than the pace that he is on for just 81 RBIs and 28 homers.
Keep that in mind in live betting when Cabrera is set to hit the plate, especially knowing that he has now reached base six times in his last 10 at bats coming into play on Friday.
TALKING BULLPENS
Not surprisingly, the bullpen for the Cardinals has nailed down a ton of games this season. Sure, Trevor Rosenthal is the type of guy who will make you go grab a shot of whiskey and a cigarette while he finishes off a game, but in the end, St. Louis as a team has 16 saves against just three blown saves on the season.
The Tigers, for whatever reason, have only hit .235 this season as a team against relief pitching, and they could be in horrible shape if this becomes a short game on Sunday thanks to the St. Louis relievers.
Remember too that Detroit's bullpen situation isn't great, knowing that Joakim Soria is probably beyond his best years as a closer, and he doesn't have another great setup man behind him. Joba Chamberlain has stats that suggest he is set for a decline as well from his 1.12 ERA.
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