For the second time already on the young season, the New York Yankees (13-9, +3.60 Units) and the Boston Red Sox (12-10, +0.35 Units) will meet in the final game of the weekend on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball.
ODDS ANALYSIS
If the lines in the games between these two teams a few weeks ago are any indication, expect to see the Red Sox favored by a relatively small margin in this game.
Joe Kelly and Adam Warren, Sunday's probable starters, faced off once already this year, with the Sox winning 8-4 in the Bronx. Boston was a +104 underdog that day, and if that line just flips and accounts for home field advantage, you can expect to see a line of around -140 or so.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Even though an 8-4 game suggests that the two starters weren't good in the game a couple weeks ago, Kelly and Warren were both effective. Warren allowed just two runs, one of which was earned in 5.1 innings, while Kelly gave up just a single run in seven frames.
Still, that game was the exception, not the rule. Both of these teams have exceptional bullpens, particularly at the back end, but you wouldn't have known it on that day.
Since that point though, these two pitchers have really been knocked around. Kelly has allowed 12 runs in his last 16.2 innings of work, while Warren has conceded nine runs in his last 15.1 innings.
QUOTE TO NOTE
"I guess you could say it's record-setting, right? He's a force in the middle of the order, against different types of pitchers (in) key moments. He controls the strike zone. Fun to watch." – Boston manager John Farrell on Hanley Ramirez, who already has 10 home runs this season
SITUATIONAL BETTING
We alluded to the two bullpens earlier, but we are a lot more concerned about the Yankees than we are with the Red Sox.
Sure, if New York can get the ball to Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller, it is in good shape. However, the likelihood of Warren tossing seven innings is slim to none.
Herein lies the problems for the Yanks. Justin Wilson and David Carpenter have been nothing to write home about, while Chris Martin and Esmil Rogers, though flamethrowers, aren't locating pitches well all the time and are getting into some trouble. Eventually, things could fall apart in Yankeeland with their bullpen.
PROP TALK
There's just no stopping Ramirez right now. Not only does he have 10 homers, but he has 22 RBIs as well to kick off the season. Legitimately, he might be the best power hitter in the game right now, and that's saying something.
Warren missed Ramirez the first time around, but the converted outfielder went 5-of-14 in his two games played against New York when these two teams played in April.
ANALYSIS & PREDICTION
There were 12 runs scored the last time this pitching matchup came together, but it was the fault of the bullpens for the game getting so out of hand. This time around, it's going to be the starters who struggle.
We just don't see Warren pitching well in this game. His second look at the Red Sox could end up being really bad, and he isn't going to be the beneficiary of these two teams playing 19 innings the night before as they did in April.
Look for the pitchers to get clocked and knocked out early, and the end result should be one of these typical odd-looking Boston victories.
Boston 8, New York 6
The MLB lines for this Sunday contest will first be released by BookMaker Sportsbook. Gamble on the game between every half inning with BookMaker's live betting feature. Along with an adjusted in-game moneyline, you can wager on what will happen in the next at-bat or how many runs will be scored in the next inning. Live betting is the most exciting way to play!
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