A pair of budding pitchers who could be in line for improvement as the year goes on will take the hill on Saturday when the Chicago Cubs (19-15, +2.12 Units) take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (17-18 SU, -3.80 Units).
PITCHING MATCHUP
Gerrit Cole was once a No. 1 pick in the MLB Draft, and he is proving why that is the case. The right-hander has been about as good as it gets this year. He is 5-1 with a 2.32 ERA, but his advanced stats really back that up as well.
Cole actually might be more unlucky than anything else in spite of the fact that batters are hitting just .226 against him. His BABIP is .301, a number which truly should be coming down lower than that as the season wears on.
Remember too, that Cole has been fantastic against the Cubs in his career, going a perfect 6-0 in his starts with a 2.92 ERA. He tossed six scoreless innings on April 29 against them here at Wrigley Field and will hope for a similar outing in this game.
Jon Lester is improving quite a bit, and it shows. He's only 3-2 with a 4.10 ERA, but he has put together four straight quality starts.
Lester too, has a very high .325 BABIP, and he is stranding runners at just a 68.1 percent clip. These stats are sure to improve with some regression to the mean, as will the fact that he only has a ground ball percentage of 42.4 percent after hitting around 48 percent for his career.
The bottom line in both cases is that you can probably expect a lot of zeroes to get on the board in a hurry. Even if there are runs that do happen to cross the plate in this game early on, pounding the under every step of the way while the starters are in will probably give you some great value.
ADVANCED STATS
Anthony Rizzo ranks tied for tenth in the bigs in WAR amongst offensive players at 1.7. He ranks sixth in offensive efficiency, and he is sixth in weighted on base average as well at .452.
The first baseman is always going to be a chore to bet on, knowing that he has a public following and is always a favorite to do anything well. However, against Cole, there might be some opportunities here for some more favorable prices.
Rizzo is 3-for-8 in his career with a double and an RBI against Cole, though he has also been struck out three times as well.
TALKING BULLPENS
The job of a relief pitcher is to come into tough situations and get out of innings. The Cubs don't have a single pitcher in their pen ranked in the Top 35 in LOB percentage, which is a bad sign for anyone who happens to leave runners on base.
Worse for the Cubs is that their closer, Hector Rondon, only ranks No. 73 amongst qualified relievers in LOB percentage, and he is one of the four pitchers in the Chicago pen to have at least a 3.00 BB/9, numbers which are just way too high for relievers.
The Bucs could have their own problems as well. Yes, they rank seventh in the majors in bullpen ERA at just 2.88, but they have a problem at the back end which could cause issues.
Mark Melancon has a 4.11 ERA, and though he has improved greatly, he has been awful when he has been asked to pitch on back-to-back days for the most part. Granted, if Melancon doesn't have to pitch on Friday, we can trust him, but be aware in live betting that a ninth inning Chicago rally, one which the Cubs have become known for, could be a possibility if Melancon has to come out of the pen on successive days.
The baseball betting odds for this game will first be available at BookMaker Sportsbook. BookMaker is going to have multiple betting options available for this baseball matchup. Live wagering during commercials offers and adjusted moneyline, individual inning run totals and next hitter results. Log in, and start gambling during the game now!
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go.
Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook! The game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Chicago Cubs will start at 4:05 p.m. ET on Saturday, May 16, 2015 at Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL. The matchup will be televised nationally on FOX Sports 1.
