Be wary when wagering on the Phillies. They are likely to be heavy underdogs with money to be made, but they’re young and haven’t shown much improvement with the young prospects in the lineup.
ODDS ANALYSIS
It hasn’t been a fun season in Philadelphia with the Phils falling 30 games below the break-even point with Thursday’s 6-0 loss in LA. The Phillies looked sharp offensively in the first two games of the Dodgers series, plating 14 runs in a split, but they were KO’d by the left-right combo of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke in a pair of shutout losses to finish the series. Philly is the least profitable team, in the red 20.6 units overall, and own the worst road record in the majors at 11-34 down 16.23 units.
San Francisco’s run to last year’s World Series championship included a home record that saw the Giants nine games over .500. They are even across the board entering the weekend – 43-43 overall, 22-22 at home and 21-21 on the road. You couldn’t be more average. Their average play has dropped them into a second place tie with Arizona in the NL West, 5.5 games behind the Dodgers. They’ve been well below average recently, losing eight of nine down 7.71 units on the moneyline. SF took two of three from the Phils when the clubs met in Philly last month with Ryan Vogelsong on the hill in their loss.
PITCHING MATCHUP
David Buchanan (0-5, 8.76 ERA) is back after being optioned to Triple-A following five uninspiring starts earlier this season. He also missed over month with an ankle injury returning to the mound just two weeks ago. It’s hard to think too highly of him with the numbers he’s put up and the Phillies are hopeful he can at least give them some innings for a beleaguered bullpen.
Ryan Vogelsong (6-6, 4.10 ERA) was ejected in his last outing for arguing balls and strikes in what was a selfish display on his part. He was pitching well, giving up just three hits and a run over four-plus before getting tossed. Vogelsong loves pitching at ATT Park, where he owns a 2.63 ERA and .218 opponent’s batting average.
Vogelsong took the loss at Philadelphia on June 7 giving up five earned runs and seven hits over 6.2 innings in a 6-4 setback. He owns a 4.55 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 27.2 career innings over seven appearances against the Phillies.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“I pitch with a lot emotion all the time. Tonight it just boiled over and got the best of me. It’s not going to stop me from pitching with emotion. I just have to do a better job of containing it.” – Giants’ pitcher Ryan Vogelsong after getting ejected for arguing ball and strikes in his last outing.
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
Jonathan Papelbon is an All-Star closer and the team’s lone representative. Pitching for such a poor team has limited his save opportunities, though he’s been good when given the chance, converting all 14 of his chances with a 1.60 ERA over 33.2 innings. Papelbon has expressed his desire – many times – to not be a Phillie any longer and the team is in a quandary over the situation. His trade value increases if he performs well, but he hasn’t been used in a save situation since June 28. His enormous contract and reputation for being a headache has also scared off other teams. “The front office knows where my heart is and where my mind is,” he said. “And that’s to be with a contending ball club. The ball is in their court.”
PROP TALK
Giants’ slugger Buster Posey is expected to be back in the lineup after missing the last two games against the Mets this week with a sore hamstring and that’s bad news for the Phillies. Posey saw his 11-game hitting streak come to an end Monday before sitting the final two games with New York and enters the weekend hitting .300 with 14 home runs. Posey has feasted on Philadelphia pitching during his career hitting .364 with three homers and 10 RBIs. He’s likely to have some good hacks against David Buchanan, who has a .323 opponent’s batting average.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Phillies starter David Buchanan has been awful in five starts and wasn’t much better during his time at the Triple-A level. Even the light-hitting Giants should be able to put enough runs on the board to back Vogelsong, who’s been stellar at ATT Park. The Phillies are excited to not be facing another ace after getting blanked in LA by Kershaw and Greinke then facing Madison Bumgarner in the opener. Still, they don’t have enough to make up for what Buchanan allows.
San Francisco 6, Philadelphia 4
BookMaker will send out the baseball odds for this marquee matchup before any other sportsbook. BookMaker is going to have multiple betting options available for this nationally-televised baseball matchup. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, individual inning run totals and next hitter results. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
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