ODDS ANALYSIS
Will anybody score off the Giants pitching staff? Nobody has in the last three games with the Padres getting blanked in each of the first two of the three-game set that concludes Wednesday. At 14-14 through 28 games, San Diego is probably not where general manager AJ Preller thought they would be after a complete offseason roster overhaul, but it’s still better than where they’ve been at this point in any of the past 10 seasons.
The over is 16-11-1 in San Diego’s first 28 games of the season though they’ve cashed the under in three of their last four. The Padres have been shutout three times in six games already this season by the Giants and the under has cashed in each of the last four games between the clubs. San Diego scored one run total in the first two games of their series with the Giants in early April before a 10-run outburst in third game.
A rough start and an eight-game losing streak had the Giants at the bottom of the NL West standings a few weeks back but their current five-game winning streak now has them in second place while they’re up 5.07 units on the moneyline in that stretch. The Giants have three consecutive shutouts cashing the under in each while going 16-10-1 on the season.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Ian Kennedy (1-1, 7.11 ERA) was sharp his last time out allowing two runs on four hits in six innings with six strikeouts to the Rockies. It’s been a rough start to the season with a stint on the DL and allowing eight runs to the Dodgers so his last outing was encouraging.
Kennedy’s had a solid career against the Giants going 9-4 with a 2.48 ERA in 21 starts. He’s allowed only 107 hits and 43 walks for a 1.09 WHIP while striking out 118 in 138 innings. He went 2.1 innings against the Giants on Apr. 9 leaving the game with a hamstring injury that landed him on the DL.
Chris Heston (2-2, 2.51 ERA) has been the biggest surprise for the Giants this season. The rookie righty has four quality starts in his five outings, including Friday when he tossed 6.1 innings of one-run ball against the Angels.
Heston’s only start in 2014 was against the Padres on Sept. 28 when he allowed three runs on six hits in four innings getting a no-decision in a 9-3 Giants win.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“It’s good to see these guys starting to get locked in and that’s a good offensive club were going against too and it’s all about making your pitches and these guys have been doing that.” – Giants manager Bruce Bochy
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
Sure the Giants have limited the Padres to six hits and no runs over the first two games of this series but the law of averages says San Diego will bust out. We like the law of averages and are counting on San Diego to end any suspense of a fourth straight SF shutout early. Go back to the series between these two in early April when the Giants held San Diego to one run in the first two games and had ace Madison Bumgarner on the hill for game three. The Pads ripped MadBum for 10 hits and five runs in three innings and he’s much more accomplished than Chris Heston. Look for San Diego to bust out of the gates early.
PROP TALK
When you think of the Giants the name Buster Posey always comes up and for good reason. Posey is the most potent stick in the lineup and a career .307 hitter and he licks his chops when he sees San Diego on the schedule. Posey has hit safely in eight of his last nine with four multi-hit games mixed in and has a career .335 average against San Diego with 14 homers and 49 RBIs. Among the 43 hitters with at least 20 plate appearances against Ian Kennedy, Posey has the second-highest mark at .405. Look for Buster to continue his success against the Padres right-hander on Wednesday with a few hits.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
It’s hard to say the Padres are facing good pitching when a guy with an ERA around eight tosses seven scoreless innings at you. San Diego is just mired in a team-wide slump right now and the hitters are too good for this misery to continue much longer. After scoring 26 runs in a three-game sweep of the Rockies the Padres forgot how to hit the baseball with six hits total and zero runs in two games. Starter Ian Kennedy has had success against the Giants and the Pads won’t be held down again. Watch for San Diego to dent the scoreboard early and often.
The Giants have lived off pitching during their championship runs and the staff is once again carrying the team as they look for a franchise record fourth straight shutout. They won’t get it and their eight-game home winning streak will end as well. San Fran is riding a hot streak right now with outstanding efforts from their starters and timely hitting from Joe Panik and Brandon Crawford. But this isn’t the same club that won the World Series last year and their good fortune runs out on Wednesday.
San Diego 6, San Francisco 2
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