ODDS ANALYSIS
There’s a whole other world outside the NL East and the Mets are about to find out if they can compete in it. After playing 26 of their first 31 games against division foes the Mets venture outside NL East and wrap up their series with the Cubs Wednesday.
Losing the opening game of the series snapped a mini two-game win streak and closed the gap a bit in the division. The Mets are still a good wager at the window up 8.65 units on the moneyline and 6.56 units on the runline. The clubs cashed the under in the series opener and the Mets, with a combination of excellent pitching and lack of run support, have played below the total in eight of nine games. The Mets have won five of Matt Harvey’s six starts with the over going 4-2.
Following a 2-5 road trip that had the Cubs on the verge of falling below .500 for the first time since the first week of the season, a return home proved to be an elixir in the series opener with the Cubs holding on for a 4-3 win. The Cubs have been a money pit on the runline going 12-19 and down 9.3 units. In nine games before this series the Cubbies won just twice and were in the red 6.17 units.
PITCHING MATCHUP
New York’s Matt Harvey (5-1, 2.72 ERA) suffered his first loss of the season surrendering three runs on six hits over six innings against the Phillies on Friday. He will be on regular rest against the Cubs after he had two extra days of rest before the 3-1 loss to Philadelphia.
Harvey tossed 7.1 innings allowing five hits and two runs with six strikeouts and no walks in his only previous start against the Cubs, a 3-2 win on May 17, 2013.
Chicago’s Jason Hammel (3-1, 3.52 ERA) allowed two runs on five hits over seven strong innings in a win at Milwaukee on Friday. He fanned a season-high eight hitters but also walked a season-high three. He’s allowed a total of five earned runs in his last three starts spanning 21 innings with two wins and a no-decision.
Hammel hasn’t had much career success against the Mets going 0-3 in four lifetime starts with a 6.33 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. He’s given up 28 hits in 21.1 innings but has yet to yield a home run.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“It’s different. We’ve all been going through it. I’ve had an extra day here and there. Dealing with it is something you have to do, and I don’t think I did a very good job of it and I think we’re all excited to go back to a five-day rotation.” – Mets pitcher Matt Harvey after a loss to the Phillies on Friday with two extra days of rest between starts
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
If the Cubs are serious about being a contender in the NL Central this year their bullpen will need to find a way to turn things around in a hurry. Relief pitching let the cubs down again Sunday, giving up back-to-back home runs in the seventh inning then the game-winning run in the 11th of a 3-2 loss to the Brewers that capped a terrible 2-5 road trip. Lefty Zac Rosscup was responsible for the home runs, which came off a pair of right-handed hitters. Chicago’s relief corps had a 4.46 ERA, allowing 48 earned runs on 91 hits and 73 walks in 94.2 innings of work through Sunday’s contest.
PROP TALK
Chicago’s Anthony Rizzo has cemented his status as a top first baseman in all of baseball and is enjoying the best season of his five-year career. Rizzo is building off his breakout 2014 season when he smacked 32 home runs and is a veteran leader on the club at the ripe age of 25. He’s played in every game with a .330 average, six homers and 18 RBIs and is one of a few Cubs to avoid the strikeout. He hit safely in 10 of 11 games entering the series and had an OPS of 1.026. Rizzo is a threat when he comes to bat and has been the only constant in an inconsistent Cubs lineup. Look for him to get a few hits off Harvey with an extra-base knock tossed in.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Mets look like they are in the race for the long haul thanks to the return of Matt Harvey, who has been sharp this season anchoring the starting staff. Harvey takes the hill against a Cubs team that has struggled while the Mets have responded to their own poor stretch. The club continues to struggle on offense but is getting enough from Lucas Duda, Curtis Granderson and Daniel Murphy to support the second-best staff in the NL.
Hoping a return to the cozy confines can give them a spark, the Cubs failed an early season test by dropping five of seven games on a road trip that took them to St. Louis and Milwaukee. The Cubs have had their moments offensively this season, but the supposed strength of the team has been far too inconsistent with way too many strikeouts. If the Cubs can cut down the whiffs they may be able to produce more runs which should equate to more wins. That’s a big if for this free-swinging team and Matt Harvey, a strikeout machine, will quiet the Cubs.
New York 4, Chicago 2
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