The Royals looked down and out in the eighth inning, but Kansas City hung a five spot and eventually went on to win 9-6 to bring this series back to Kauffman.
The Royals were lacking a spark early in the series, but may have just found one when they needed it the most.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Game 4 loss was a bad one for the Astros, a really bad one. Houston is terrible on the road and was lucky to squeeze out a win over a slumping Royals team in Game 1.
Now, the Royals have their spunk back and have their top dog on the bump. Kansas City breezed through the American League in last year’s playoff sweeping both Los Angeles and Baltimore thanks to some amazing mojo.
Well, Kansas City looked flat in the first three games. They looked like a regular team instead of last year’s team of destiny. What the Royals were missing was their spark. Last year, they came from a three run deficit in the eighth to beat the A’s in the Wild Card game. This comeback win—also in the eighth—could be the same momentum boost.
Plus, the Royals now get to return home and are the -130 favorites to win this game with the total lined at 8.
PITCHING MATCHUP
With everything on the line in Game 5, the Royals will turn to their acquired ace in Johnny Cueto.
Cueto hasn’t exactly been the dominating force in his time in Kansas City. His 4.76 regular season ERA since the trade leaves plenty to be desired, and his Game 2 performance was mediocre at best, allowing four runs over six innings. He ended well, retiring 12 of the last 14 batters faced to get the win and give his team hope.
On the other side, the Astros starter also led his team to a win in his first game of this postseason. The right-handed Collin McHugh held the Royals to two runs over six innings, though he did allow two home runs, both to Kendrys Morales.
The 19-game winner, gives up a few home runs and has a higher ERA than Houston would like, but he gets wins. His road numbers are still concerning, but he does have seven wins over 11 decisions. He’s also been the team’s best pitcher—aside from Keuchel—in the second half.
QUOTE TO NOTE
When Game 4 came to an end, Houston manager A.J. Hinch tried to downplay the loss, but you could tell it was a blow to the team’s morale. He said:
“Obviously, seven runs after the eighth is not a recipe for success for us, but, look, this group has been very good for us, and they will bounce back. We have a day off tomorrow, we have Game 5, but clearly this one’s a tough one.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
On Monday, the Astros’ bullpen just couldn’t find the answer in the game’s final two innings. The Royals bats came alive unlike they had all series.
Overall, this is very reminiscent to last year’s key wins, but this Royals offense is better and more experienced than last year. They have plenty more power. The power showed on Monday with Salvador Perez and Eric Hosmer both going deep.
For Houston, they were in control early in Game 4 and put six on the board. They’re a dangerous lineup with a lot of power. Carlos Correa had a big play at the plate with four hits, including a home run, but it was a miscue in the field and bad day for the bullpen that stands out.
PROP TALK
McHugh got Morales out all five times they faced each other prior to Game 1, but the Royals designated hitter lit him up for a pair of bombs in Kansas City’s Game 1 loss.
Colby Rasmus hit a bomb against Cueto in Game 2, extending his success against him after going 9-for-27 with four extra base hits leading into the game. Carlos Gomez has also had success against Cueto with a pair of homers in 12 at bats.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
McHugh pitched better than Cueto this series. The Astros have a powerful offense that can do damage with the long ball and a number of very talented youngsters that will be good for years to come.
All that makes the Astros the favorite, but the bullpen choked for Houston and they’ll have to come back out for Game 5 in the underdog role. They’ve struggled down the stretch and it’s hard to have faith in them. Houston’s also below .500 on the road this year.
Kansas City 5, Houston 4
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