Tuesday is game two of a crucial four game set between the Houston Astros and the Texas Rangers as one looks to stay atop the AL West standings while the other looks to take over the top spot.
Right now, the Astros are the division leaders with a 76-66 record though they also boast a cumulative moneyline of $170 while the Rangers are 74-67, with a more impressive $2,253 moneyline.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Astros hit the road for this four game set against Texas and the road isn’t a good place to be for Houston. While one of the best teams in baseball at home, the Astros are 28-42 on the road. They’ve also dropped four of their last five games, all on the first two legs of this three city road trip.
Overall, the Astros have been generally slumping. They’ve lost seven of their last 10 games and have done so with a combination of inconsistent offense and less than stellar pitching.
The Rangers have been taking advantage of the Astros’ slump to get back in the AL West race. Even with three losses in their last four games, the Rangers have won 10 of their last 17 games.
Of course, Texas also has the home field edge, though unlike most teams, that’s actually a bad thing for the Rangers who are only 33-33 at home, but seven games over .500 on the road.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Martin Perez is expected to take the mound on Tuesday after Cole Hamels opens the series on Monday.
The young southpaw has dropped his last two starts and is just 1-3 with a 5.64 ERA over his last four. On the year, Perez is 2-5 since returning from Tommy John surgery with both of his wins coming at home despite a 5.82 ERA.
While Perez isn’t anywhere near back to form, there is hope in this game as he’s dominated the Astros in his career with a 3-1 record and 2.17 ERA in four starts.
On the other side, the Astros have yet to announce their starters for the Rangers series, but based on the current rotation, Collin McHugh should get the Tuesday start.
The 28-year old right-hander is a very impressive 16-7 in his 28 starts this year. While his ERA isn’t quite as dominant as his win-loss record at 3.89, it’s still pretty solid.
The righty is a solid mid-rotation arm and a workhorse in this rotation, throwing 178 1/3 innings. Over his last four starts, he’s 3-1 with a 2.73 ERA and is 7-2 with a 2.80 ERA in the second half.
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
The Rangers’ bats had been red hot and on a roll until their last four games. They were shutout in back-to-back games against the Mariners and managed just seven runs in their first two games against the A’s.
Still, Texas has a good offense if they can get back on track. Rougned Odor has been a major spark plug and is batting .333 against the Astros this season. Meanwhile, Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder and Mitch Moreland are each hitting over .310 against them as well.
On the other side, the Astros have the power advantage having slammed 195 long balls, the second most in the sport. Houston, however, is almost too heavily dependent on the home run with a team OBP of just .309.
Overall, shortstop Carlos Correa is the team’s biggest star with a .850 OPS and 18 home runs since his promotion from Triple-A. He’s also got a .935 OPS against the Rangers this year, though Preston Tucker leads the way in that category with a 1.014 mark against the other team from Texas.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
While McHugh is far from an ace, he’s a serviceable arm who’s been pitching very well of late while Martin has still yet to find his way since his return.
With that, the Astros have the edge on the mound. That edge extends to a bullpen ranked fourth in the sport with a 2.94 ERA, nearly a run and a half better than the Rangers’ 4.35.
Offensively, the Astros are a bit spotty, but they’ve got plenty of power and should be able to mash a homer or two at a hitter friendly park like Globe Life.
Houston 5, Texas 3
BookMaker will be the first online sportsbook to send out the baseball odds for this marquee matchup. Since this game can be seen by anyone with a TV, BookMaker will have a multitude of wagering options available for it. Outside of the normal lines, you can gamble on real-time moneylines, player props and inning totals. Live betting is open during every commercial break!
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