April was a disaster for Jon Lester. In spite of his struggles though, the Chicago Cubs (12-8 SU, +3.29 Units) are heading into May on a high, and they'll hope to keep that up against the struggling Milwaukee Brewers (5-17 SU, -12.81 Units).
ODDS ANALYSIS
No team in baseball has been worse to bettors than has Milwaukee. The team is down 12.81 units on the season and is out 15.12 units when betting it on the run-line, numbers which you'd like to think are going to have to get better as the year wears on.
Keep in mind in this matchup that the Cubbies are only 2-2 in Lester's four starts this year, and they are -0.31 units. With all of their other pitchers on the hill, they're 10-6 and up 3.60 units.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Mechanically speaking, Lester is still doing alright. He is coming off of his best start of the year, a six-inning outing against Cincinnati in which he struck out 10 and allowed three runs. Still, batters are knocking him around to the tune of a 6.23 ERA, and he has allowed 24 hits and 12 runs over the course of 15.2 innings pitched here at home thus far.
History will tell you that Wily Peralta probably won't pitch well in this game either. Sure, he has a good history against the Cubs with a 3.74 ERA in his nine starts, but he only has two quality starts in four tries this season and has yet to get his first win (0-3).
QUOTE TO NOTE
"Jonny's our horse. He's the man. And whenever he pitches, we expect to win. We need to win for him. It carries over to the whole pitching staff. He's trending in the right direction." – Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo on Jon Lester, Friday's starting pitcher
SITUATIONAL BETTING
We will say this much about the Brewers. They're one of two teams in baseball who haven't blown a save yet this year. Francisco Rodriguez still has the goods to be amongst the best closers in the game, but the problem is that he just hasn't had many opportunities this year. Milwaukee only has three saves as a team, tied for the lowest mark in the bigs.
PROP TALK
Kris Bryant is proving to be the real deal in Chicago, and with a gas can like Peralta toeing the rubber, he could be a good bet on Friday.
Bryant has rebounded from his first game when he struck out three times to raise his average up to .318 with an OPS of .864. He hasn't hit a homer this year yet, but in his 12 games, he has reached base 24 times.
ANALYSIS & PREDICTION
Lester is certainly trending upwards right now, and we want to get on his back before things start to get out of control from a betting standpoint. We know that we are going to be asked to lay at least -150 in this game, but that's okay against one of the worst teams in baseball.
There is a bit of a fear that Ryan Braun is starting to hit the ball all over the place, but in the end, he can't do this all by himself in Milwaukee, and he doesn't have a great lineup surrounding him.
A good day at the office for Peralta is seven innings and three runs allowed. A good day for Lester is a complete game shutout. Neither will happen on Friday, but the North Siders will kick this series off with a comfortable 'W' to give Lester his first victory of the campaign.
Chicago 5, Milwaukee 2
The baseball betting odds for this game will first be available at BookMaker Sportsbook. BookMaker is going to have multiple betting options available for this baseball matchup. Live wagering during commercials offers and adjusted moneyline, individual inning run totals and next hitter results. Log in, and start gambling during the game now!
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