ODDS ANALYSIS
NL Central Division rivals and geographical neighbors separated by about 90 miles hook up for the first time in 2015 with a three-game set starting Friday.
The Brewers come in with the worst record in baseball at 5-17 and as a result are the least profitable team in MLB down 12.81 units after 22 games.
The over is 4-1 in Milwaukee’s last five games and 12-9-1 overall thanks to a pitching staff that ranks near the bottom of MLB with a 4.78 ERA. The Brewers scored eight times Wednesday in a win at Cincinnati benefitting from four home runs.
With high expectations entering the season Chicago still had to perform on the field, and so far they have as a pleasant surprise in the tough NL Central. The Cubs had a four-game winning streak stopped Wednesday with an 8-1 loss to Pittsburgh and are 12-8 after 20 games in the black 3.29 units. The Cubbies are an exciting team with plenty of young talent and the sticks have been productive while the pitching staff has been adequate even without their high-priced free agent and Friday’s starter Jon Lester contributing. The over is 4-2-2 in Chicago’s last eight games and 9-7-4 overall.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Wily Peralta (0-3, 5.04 ERA) pitched well in Milwaukee’s loss to St. Louis Saturday allowing just two runs on seven hits in six innings. Peralta has given up 32 hits but walked just six batters over his first 25 innings.
Peralta is 3-5 with a 3.74 ERA in nine career starts against the Cubs and had a dominant 13-strkeout performance on Sept. 27, allowing one run in seven inning of a 2-1 victory – his 17th and final win of 2014.
Chicago’s Jon Lester (0-2, 6.23 ERA) racked up 10 strikeouts over six innings in a no-decision against the Reds in his last start. The lefty surrendered three runs on five hits with a walk in a game the Cubs won 7-3. Lester still has an uninspiring 6.23 ERA over 21.1 innings and seeks that elusive first victory. His fifth start of the year will be the fourth against a NL Central foe.
Lester has lost both of his career starts against the Brewers with a 2.93 ERA over 15.1 innings with 14 strikeouts and three home runs allowed.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“Obviously, the wins have been few and far between. We’ve been playing terribly in all facets of the game. We’ll take every one (win) we can get. Individually it’s nice to have a good game. Hopefully this is something that can get me going, get us going, and get us back on the right track.” – Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
As long as Cubs starter Jon Lester is in the game there’s a good chance Milwaukee won’t score. First off the Brewers have a difficult time reaching home plate when someone gets on base and secondly they’ve been horrible against left-handed pitching. Milwaukee is hitting .198 with no home runs in 101 at-bats against left-handers this year and averages one strikeout per 3.72 plate appearances – third-worst in baseball. Lester is primed to pick up his first win as a Cub and the Brewers will help him out.
PROP TALK
The Cubs have some of the brightest young talent in baseball on their roster but a pair of youngsters with proven big league success is key to the Cubs hopes. Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo are both having stellar seasons as the Cubs enter May with a winning record and within two games of first place. Castro is hitting .325 and Rizzo .324 this season and both have had success against Brewers starter Wily Peralta with each having 11 hits in 24 at-bats for a .458 average. Five of Rizzo’s 11 hits have been homers with 11 driven in while Castro has a pair of long balls and three doubles off the Milwaukee righty. If Peralta sticks around long enough, watch for the Cubbies duo to lead the offense.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
At 5-17 Milwaukee’s record ranks as the worst by a National League team through 22 games since the Cubs opened 4-18 in 1997 but with three wins in their last seven games the Brewers have somewhat turned the tide on an abysmal start. They enter this series following one of their most impressive offensive showings of the season pummeling the Reds with four homers and eight runs in an 8-3 win on Wednesday. Ryan Braun had two homers, including a grand slam, to end a seven-game road losing streak. The Brewers are hopeful this helps them out of their offensive slumber and it’s not just catching a rookie making his MLB debut.
The Cubs have been doing a lot right through the first month of the season and have established themselves as a contender in the NL Central, despite Wednesday’s loss to the Pirates that broke a four-game winning streak. The call-up of Kris Bryant adds another healthy bat in the middle of the order to go along with Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro, who are all hitting over .300 by the way. Starting pitching has been solid even though prized free agent Jon Lester has yet to collect a win with a 6.23 ERA after four starts. Those numbers will change Friday after a Cubs win.
Chicago 5, Milwaukee 1
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