A game which is lined right around a pick 'em should be on tap on ESPN2's Monday Night Baseball this week, as the Minnesota Twins (35-30 SU, +11.57 Units) play host to the Chicago White Sox (28-36 SU, -9.53 Units).
PITCHING MATCHUP
If you're going to be betting on the Twins, we suggest doing it early. John Danks has been terrible in first innings this season, including allowing three runs in the first against the Pirates in his last start.
The lefty is allowing hitters in his first 45 pitches to bat a whopping .298 against him this year, and his slugging percentage allowed in his first inning has been a miserable .545. Three of Danks' 11 homers allowed have come in the first inning of games, and he has allowed six extra base hits in 44 batters faced in his first 15 pitches thrown.
Meanwhile, Tommy Milone has been dealing of late. His history doesn't suggest that he can keep this up, but we love riding hot hands while they're still hot.
Milone certainly qualifies. His stuff has been nothing short of deceiving in his last two outings, and as a result, he has only allowed a total of eight hits and three runs in those games, both of which lasted exactly seven innings.
ADVANCED STATS
The White Sox are incredibly undisciplined at the plate, and Milone should be able to take advantage of that on Monday.
As a team, Chicago has a walk rate of just 6.2 percent against a strikeout rate of 20.4 percent. The latter number isn't all that bad when you consider the fact that there are teams with 24 percent strikeout rates, but it's still far too high with the low number of walks the team has amassed as well.
The White Sox do only have a team BABIP of .284, though that number is high enough to believe that matters might ultimately not get any better when push comes to shove.
Do consider the fact as well that Chicago only has 21 total stolen bases this year. It isn't helping that Alexei Ramirez isn't getting on base hardly at all, and he is probably the best speed threat the White Sox are bringing to the table. Milone isn't great at a lot of things, but he doesn't get stolen upon often because he has some deceiving moves coming to the plate
TALKING BULLPENS
The other reason why you should have confidence to play the Twins is because they do a great job of finishing off games. Glen Perkins has evolved into one of the best closers in the game, as he is 23-of-23 in save opportunities this season and is surely headed to the All-Star Game.
Take him out of the equation though, and what's left is a bullpen with an ERA beyond 4.00, which isn't all that good. A K/9 of 5.92 is concerning for sure, again, especially considering the fact that Perkins has 26 strikeouts against just four walks in 29.1 innings of work.
However, we still know that a game which gets to the ninth inning might as well be over with. Perkins has allowed five runs this entire season over 29.1 innings of work, and though he can be a bit wild at times, he also knows how to get out runners when they do get on base.
Perkins has a strand rate of over 88 percent this season, one of the top marks in the game amongst closers. Chicago had better not plan on coming back to win this game, especially late on, knowing that its bullpen isn't anything to write home about either.
The MLB odds for this game will be available first at BookMaker Sportsbook. Gamble on the game between every half inning with BookMaker's live betting feature. Along with an adjusted in-game moneyline, you can wager on what will happen in the next at-bat or how many runs will be scored in the next inning. Live betting is the most exciting way to play!
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