While the Chicago Cubs (37-30, $355) are third in the NL Central, they will host the Los Angeles Dodgers (39-31, -$511) who despite just two more wins are at the top of the weaker NL West standings in the third of four on Wednesday.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Los Angeles is one of the most popular teams to bet on, but despite a winning record, they have not delivered good value to their bettors.
The Dodgers of late have won just two of their last seven games, dropping back-to-back series against the San Francisco Giants and the Texas Rangers, two good, but not great, teams.
On Sunday, L.A. did turn things around with a commanding 10-2 victory over the Giants that they hope will be a momentum builder moving forward, though the Dodgers do hit the road for the four game series with the Cubs and are just 12-18 on the road (-$1064).
The Cubs, on the other hand, are a solid 18-13 at home ($126) and have won back-to-back games and nine of their last 14 played in front of the hometown faithful.
Head-to-head, these teams last met a season ago with the Dodgers taking four of seven.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Neither of the Dodgers’ aces will be on the bump on Wednesday, though their scheduled starter, Mike Bolsinger, actually has the rotation’s second best ERA at 2.87, ahead of Clayton Kershaw.
Despite the surprising stats, the 27-year old right-hander does have his flaws and is coming off a poor performance where he went just five and a third, allowing five runs on eight hits. That was the second straight game that Bolsinger failed to record a quality start after four quality starts in his previous five outings.
Overall, the righty is 4-2 with a 1.200 WHIP and 3.18 FIP to go along with that solid 2.87 ERA. Since the start of June, however, he hasn’t been nearly as impressive with four starts and a 5.32 ERA and 1.545 WHIP over 22 innings.
Bolsinger will matchup against the talented, but inconsistent Kyle Hendricks for the Cubbies.
Chicago’s number four starter is 25-years old and has made just 26 career big league starts and churned out a 3.33 ERA. This season, the right-hander is 2-3 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.235 WHIP through 13 games spanning 73 2/3 innings.
He has a complete game shutout to his record this year, but has lasted just five innings in his last three starts. He gave up seven runs—six earned—along with 11 hits in his last outing.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“The offensive explosion leaves a good taste in your mouth going on the road. Hopefully it’ll be a catalyst for us.” – Brett Anderson, the Dodgers pitcher on Sunday and benefactor of the offensive explosion
The Dodgers’ offense is potent, but had been kept quiet for a few days prior to their 10 run outburst on Sunday night baseball.
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
Los Angeles ranks fourth in the National League in runs scored with 302 and tops in home runs with 91. The team’s powerful lineup, however, had been slumping a bit scoring three or less in five of its last six games before Sunday.
Still, slump aside, the Dodgers still have impressive offensive numbers up-and-down the lineup. All in all, the team has 11 active players with at least 80 plate appearances and each has an OPS+ of 104 or better.
Even more encouraging, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, who is one of the team’s offensive catalysts and leads the team in doubles with 22, smashed his first home run in 18 games on Sunday, giving him 12 for the season.
Gonzalez’s bat heating back up after a .238 average in June is huge to add more thump to a lineup that already includes Joc Pederson (.933 OPS and 18 HRs), Justin Turner (.980 OPS) and Yasiel Puig (.882 OPS).
The Dodgers’ lineup is quite dangerous, but the Cubs’ have actually outscored them in June with two more runs in two fewer games.
For Chicago, much of their offensive success lies with the lineup juggling of manager Joe Maddon who is a master at putting his players in a position to succeed.
Of course, for guys like Anthony Rizzo (1.010 OPS) and Kris Bryant (.834 OPS) nearly every moment is a position to succeed.
The Cubbies supplement those two in the middle with guys like Miguel Montero (.798 OPS), Chris Coghlan (.772 OPS) and Chris Denorfia (.795 OPS). All in all, the team has a few big bats that can match up with the likes of Gonzalez and Pederson, but they do lack the depth that the Turners and Alex Guerreros (.873 OPS) of the world provide.
PROP TALK
With a couple of young guns on the hill, neither lineup has much experience against either hurler.
Only two active Dodgers have a hit against Hendricks in their careers and one of them is Turner who is 1 for 3. Look for Turner to have further success against Hendricks on Wednesday as the Dodgers’ infielder has dominated right-handed pitching this year with a 1.121 OPS, hitting .378 with nine home runs in 127 at bats.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Both Bolsinger and Hendricks are coming off of rough starts and they each are likely to give up a few runs on Wednesday.
Hendricks has the better stuff of the two as shown by his shutout, but Bolsinger had done a better job with command and control until the calendar flipped to June. Considering Bolsinger’s recent struggles, look for the Cubs to get the win at home against a Dodgers’ team that has great offensive numbers, but struggles when away from Chavez Ravine.
Chicago 7, Los Angeles 5
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