Despite injuries to key players like Yasiel Puig and Carl Crawford, the Los Angeles Dodgers ( 17-9, $437 ) have kept the ball rolling with the National League’s second best record. Meanwhile, their opponent in Thursday’s series finale, the Milwaukee Brewers ( 8-19, -$1,021 ) hold the worst mark in baseball and have already relieved manager Ron Roenicke of his duties.
ODDS ANALYSIS
These teams split the first two games of their series with the Brewers getting the 4-3 come from behind win in Craig Counsell’s first game as manager, before falling back into their normal ways on Tuesday, dropping the game 8-2.
On Tuesday, most of the Dodgers’ runs came off home runs from Jimmy Rollins, Adrian Gonzalez and Justin Turner.
Overall, it is Los Angeles’ depth that has allowed them to be so successful thus far in 2015. Turner continues to produce in a part time role with a 1.064 OPS and others like Scott Van Slyke ( .913 OPS ) and Alex Guerrero ( 1.165 OPS ) provide similar production.
Add that to regulars like Joc Pederson ( 1.017 OPS ), Andre Either ( .943 OPS ) and Howie Kendrick ( .831 OPS ) and it isn’t hard to see how Gonzalez ( 1.179 OPS ) and company have been able to put up the second most runs in the NL even with all their injuries.
Milwaukee is ranked near the bottom of the league in offense and pitching with a cumulative 4.50 ERA and just 3.3 runs per game scored. The team ranks dead last in baseball in OBP at .273.
Carlos Gomez’s recent return off the disabled list should help the team a bit, but he’s hitting just .240 in the early going. In fact, the only player actually producing for the Brewers on offense is first baseman Adam Lind who is hitting .315 with a .943 OPS.
PITCHING MATCHUP
With so many rotation injuries, the Dodgers have had to turn to rookie right-hander Carlos Frias to fill a spot.
The 25-year old out of the Dominican Republic will make his second start of the season and fourth of his career.
Overall, in three games this season he is 2-0 without allowing a run in seven and two-thirds innings. In his only start, back on May 1, he went five and a third allowing just four hits and a walk while throwing 70 pitches. Likely still on a pitch count this time around, Frias should be allowed to go deeper in the game if effective, likely increasing his number of pitches up to around 90.
Never a big prospect, Frias has sometimes struggled to adjust league to league throughout the minors, but in three games—two starts—at Triple-A Oklahoma City this year he is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.421 WHIP over 12 2/3 innings.
On the mound for the Brewers opposite Frias is 29-year old right-hander Mike Fiers.
Fiers broke on the scene in 2012 with a 3.74 ERA in 23 games and 127 2/3 innings, but has been up and down since.
This year, Fiers is 1-3 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.662 WHIP in 24 2/3 innings pitched. Of his five starts, however, his best and only win came in his last outing. On May 2, he pitched his only quality start, going six and allowing just one while striking out 12 against the Chicago Cubs.
QUOTE TO NOTE
While the return to the loss column is troublesome for Milwaukee, the big story for the Brewers remains new manager Craig Counsell. He was asked about his second day on the job after the loss saying:
“I’m not settled in yet. That’s good. I don’t want to settle in. I like that things are new. I think it keeps you on your toes for a bit longer.”
Unless some of his proven veterans start playing up to their career numbers, Counsell is likely to have to stay on his toes, whether he likes it or not.
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
While many of the Dodgers’ offseason moves worked wonders, the one that has yet to pay off is shortstop Jimmy Rollins. The veteran—like many of his former teammates in Philadelphia—looks to have aged considerably over the winter. Hitting just .168 on the young season, Rollins has lost his lead-off spot to rookie Joc Pederson.
PROP TALK
Only a handful of Dodgers have had any at bats against Mike Fiers and none have been to the plate more than seven times.
Still, Adrian Gonzalez does have a home run against him and given he leads the league in that category may not be a bad pick if you are looking for someone to provide power.
As for hits, I would go for Turner if he gets the start. He is 6 for 14 so far in May and has a .339 average since joining Los Angeles in 2014.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
While Frias kept the opposition off the board in his first start, I don’t expect either pitcher to dominate in this one. Still, given the Brewers’ struggles up and down the lineup, I have the Dodgers depth getting the advantage here.
The bullpen also favors the Dodgers. Frias is still likely to hand things off to the pen relatively early given a likely pitch count. Normally, that is a bad thing, but for the Dodgers’ this year and their 1.98 pen ERA, there is nothing bad about that.
Los Angeles 6, Milwaukee 4
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