
Don Mattingly has stayed true to his word and broken up his aces from pitching one right after the other in his rotation. We'll have to see if the strategy pays off for the Los Angeles Dodgers (51-39 SU, -8.47 Units) on Sunday when they throw arguably the man who has had the best season in baseball against the Washington Nationals (48-39 SU, +0.10 Units).
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Nationals have been about as blah of a team as you can get in terms of results for bettors. They're literally a tenth of a unit above the breakeven point in the first half of the year, and though they were only a .500 team on the road, their marks away from Nationals Park are basically what they were at home.
There might not be much tell there, but there certainly is a tell in terms of totals. Washington went 18-22-1 in the first half for over backers but 26-18-2 on the road.
PITCHING MATCHUP
The Nationals have yet to announce a starting pitcher for this game as of Wednesday evening, but it seems logical to think that either Jordan Zimmermann or Gio Gonzalez will take the ball. Washington legitimately only has four starters right now with Stephen Strasburg on the disabled list, and though that will come to an end next week, Matt Williams doesn't have to freak out in this series against LA.
It's not often that you see a man with a 1.39 ERA getting the ball third for his team, but that's what is happening here with the Dodgers. They've broken Zack Greinke up from Clayton Kershaw in the rotation, which has left Greinke as the de facto No. 3 starter.
Greinke though, shouldn't be ashamed of this in this rotation. His stats this year are out of this world, and though his FIP of 2.60 is nowhere near his ERA of 1.39, there is no shame in these numbers.
QUOTE TO NOTE
"The things he's been doing so far have been great. He's almost been perfect. You can't ask for anything else." – Dodgers catcher Yasmani Grandal on Greinke's first half of the season
SITUATIONAL BETTING
One. That's the number of earned runs which J.P. Howell has allowed this year. Granted, he's a situational lefty, but against a Nationals team which isn't all that good against left-handed pitching as it is, Howell could be a dominant force for an out or two in this game.
PROP TALK
Joc Pederson is the ultimate boom or bust prospect. Yes, he has 20 homers this year, and he deserved to be in the All-Star Game, but the bottom line is that he isn't a great hitter at this point in his career. The outfielder is batting just .230, and has just two singles since the start of July. He could be a hero and hit two homers, but it's a lot more likely that he is going to go 0-for-4.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Greinke has been unhittable this year, and there's no reason for that to continue in this one.
The Nationals have a lot of question marks coming into the second half of the season, as they are still playing without Denard Span, Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman and Jason Werth, and we think they’re going to end up being beaten to a pulp in this one with Greinke tossing yet another strong outing.
Los Angeles 4, Washington 1
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