When playing in Coors Field, offense is never really an issue. The Rockies, once again, should have plenty of offense, but the issue will be on the mound.
Colorado made some offseason moves to address their pitching concerns, mainly in the bullpen, but that’s not likely to lead to much of an improvement in their record from last season.
PRESEASON ODDS
The Rockies currently have the second worst odds of winning the 2016 World Series, sitting at +17961. The odds also figure Colorado to finish in last in the NL West, putting the odds at +4990.
Their win total for the year is set at 71 under -125 after finishing last season with a 68-94 record, dead last in the division and ahead of only Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Cincinnati in the National League.
PITCHING BREAKDOWN
Jorge De La Rosa is the Rockies’ only starter that would be likely to make most other rotations.
The veteran southpaw has managed to find a way to win in Coors Field, posting a 4.20 ERA in his eight seasons as a Rockies’ pitcher. Last season, the pitched to a 9-7 record with a 4.17 ERA and 1.356 WHIP in 149 innings of work. For his career, he’s 93-75 with a 4.55 ERA dating back to his 2004 debut with Milwaukee.
While De La Rosa is a solid mid-to-back-end of the rotation arm, he’s on the wrong side of 30 and heading into his age 35 season cannot be expected to be anything more than what he has been throughout his career.
As a team, the Rockies pitched to a 5.04 ERA and as a rotation, their ERA was 5.27. Still, there is some upside in the Rockies’ rotation. Eddie Butler struggled last year and will start the year in the minors, but he’s got the upside to have a strong career and could contribute later in the year if he can straighten himself out. Jonathan Gray, meanwhile, could make an impact as well. Of course, both will still have to contend with the Coors effect.
As for the bullpen, additions of Jason Motte, Chad Qualls and Jake McGee help. All three have strong fastballs and rely on that more than anything. That’s a clear philosophical approach to this pen as Coors Field tends to be even harder for pitchers who rely on a strong arsenal of breaking pitches.
HITTING BREAKDOWN
It’s a bit perplexing that the Rockies would deal a young, controllable outfielder like Corey Dickerson, particularly for the haul they got, but that’s what they did. As a result, the outfield picture is a bit clearer with newly signed Gerardo Parra alongside Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez.
Gonzalez had a really nice bounce back season in 2015 after injuries zapped his effectiveness in years prior. He hit .271 with 40 bombs and 97 RBIs, amassing a .864 OPS.
For a long time he and Troy Tulowitzki were the heart of this lineup—at least when they were healthy—but with Tulo gone, it’s up to Nolan Arenado to fill in and complete the fearsome middle of the order.
Arenado has quickly established himself into an elite third-baseman, both defensively and offensively. The 24-year old played in 157 games last season, hitting .287 with 43 homers and 130 RBIs. He recorded a team high 124 OPS+.
Those two will be behind a lot of runs for an offense that continuously ranks amongst the best in the sport. Blackmon will set the table and had a .347 OBP last year to go along with 43 steals.
Offensively, the only question is at shortstop. Jose Reyes came back in the Tulo deal, but with his legal issues, he’ll remain on leave for a while and could face a hefty suspension.
KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH
You could point to Gray or De La Rosa here as the key to stabilize the rotation, but the rotation is going to struggle even if there’s a bright spot or two in there.
For those playing fantasy or looking for a good guy to back in props, Nolan Arenado is your man. He’ll play most of the year at age 25 and continues to get better and stronger. He’s a nice candidate to lead the league in HRs in 2016.
Another player to keep an eye on is Carlos Gonzalez as a trade chip. Trade discussions have swirled around him for years and he could be the big chip at the deadline. The Rockies will hope they didn’t miss the boat in not dealing him this offseason after he finally put together another strong, relatively injury free year.
FINAL THOUGHTS AND ANALYSIS
If you’re looking for a sleeper team, look elsewhere. The Rockies just don’t have the pitching to compete. Sure, their bullpen is better than it was last year and their offense will still be one of the best in the National League, but the starting staff is a mess.
The Rockies currently lack a clear direction, but should aim to be sellers this season, looking to amass pitching talent. Nobody will sign as a free agent to pitch in Coors. They need to trade for and develop their arms and buy the bats. Of course with Arenado, one of the bats is already there.
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