ODDS ANALYSIS
Not a good road team all season, the Mets just needed to get out of New York to start winning games again. The Mets ended their last homestand getting swept by the Cubs while scoring just one run in three games, but took two of three in Los Angeles before Monday’s shutout win against the Giants.
New York doesn’t need to score a lot of runs with their pitching staff, and they haven’t, averaging 3.49 per game, but they need to score more than zero, which is what they’ve done three times in their last 10 games, including Tuesday’s 3-0 loss. The under is 16-5 in the Mets’ last 21 games after playing below the scoreline in each of the first two in San Francisco.
The Giants snapped their second-longest losing streak of the season at seven games with Tuesday’s 3-0 win, and also ended the Mets’ season-best scoreless run at 21 innings. San Francisco is still in need of some offense after scoring eight runs in its last five games with the under at 4-1 in that stretch. The Giants have performed better at home lately going 5-2 in their last seven at ATT Park to climb one game over .500 (22-21), however they are still in the red 3.54 units on the moneyline.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Jacob deGrom (8-6, 2.30 ERA) wasn’t his dominant self last time out allowing seven hits and four runs (three earned) over 5.1 innings in a loss to the Cubs on Thursday. He fanned a season-low two batters in his shortest outing since May 11, a span of nine starts. Still, he’s been rolling with a 1.55 ERA over his last nine outings.
In his lone start against the Giants, deGrom struck out seven over 7.1 innings giving up just two runs and four hits in a 4-2 home win on Aug. 2, 2014.
Jake Peavy (0-3, 6.43 ERA) pitched well in his return after nearly three months on the disabled list, allowing just two runs on three hits over 6.1 innings at Washington on Friday. He walked four and struck out four in the contest, surrendering a two-run homer to Clint Robinson in the seventh for the deciding runs in a 2-1 loss.
This is Peavy’s first home start – and second overall – since coming off the DL. He was touched up for four runs on eight hits in a loss to Arizona in his only outing at ATT Park this season on Apr. 17. Peavy is 6-3 with a 3.45 ERA over 12 lifetime starts against the Mets.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“We don’t play well on the West Coast, so to get off to a great start on this road trip is huge for us. It looks like we’re starting to get some breaks.” – Mets manager Terry Collins
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
The Giants are getting a big boost for their offense right before the All-Star break, with Hunter Pence activated off the disabled list in time for Tuesday’s game. Pence took batting practice Sunday for the first time since he went on the DL on June 3, and again before Monday’s series opener. He looked comfortable in the batters box and reported no pain in his left wrist prompting the Giants to make the move earlier than expected. His return comes at a good time for a team struggling to score runs. The Giants’ extended their losing streak to seven games with Monday’s shutout loss and scored just five runs in their last four. SF is 14-5 with Pence in the lineup and 29-36 without him.
PROP TALK
San Francisco’s recent offensive woes have coincided with the struggles of Joe Panik. Coincidence? Probably not. Panik went hitless in 12 at-bats during the series in Washington where the Giants scored just five times. His average dropped to .304 and Panik was given Monday off by manager Bruce Bochy. Panik went 6 for 14 with a pair of home runs in three games when the teams met in New York in early June and he has nine hits in 18 at-bats over his previous four games against the Mets with a 1.136 OPS. He’s hitless in three at-bats against Jacob deGrom, but when Panik is on, so is the Giants offense.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Giants get a big stick back in their lineup and it couldn’t come at a better time. The return of Hunter Pence should give them a little more pop in the order and help out a scuffling offense while sending Justin Maxwell to the bench. But having to face Jacob deGrom isn’t the ideal matchup after missing 36 games. With an impressive 0.97 WHIP, deGrom doesn’t allow many base runners and the Giants inability to hit home runs will prove costly in this game.
New York 4, San Francisco 2
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