ODDS ANALYSIS
Mets’ bettors should be careful when the team is on the road because they have struggled mightily away from Citi Field. It’s hard to imagine a division leader being 10 games under .500 on the road but that’s where the Mets are after dropping Wednesday’s game 8-0 at Toronto, falling to 10-20 in the red 9.25 units on the moneyline.
Starter Jacob deGrom has two of the Mets three road wins in June and the team is 5-1 in his last six starts while cashing the over five times in the same span.
This is a big series for the Braves, who trail the Mets by only 3.5 games in the standings following their 5-2 win over Boston on Wednesday. Atlanta is still stewing over Sunday’s 10-8 loss in New York after blowing an 8-3 lead and dropping two of three games. The Braves tapped a good Mets staff for 16 runs in the series and cashed the over each time. In fact the Braves are the second-best over play in baseball going 41-22-3 overall and 19-9-2 at Turner Field.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Jacob deGrom (7-4, 2.33 ERA) struck out nine and allowed just one run over seven innings in a no-decision against the Braves on Saturday. He was in line for the win until the bullpen blew a two-run lead in the ninth. DeGrom faces Atlanta for the second time in a week. But lately it hasn’t mattered who the reigning NL Rookie of the Year faces. He’s averaging 9.4 strikeouts over his last five starts and hasn’t lost any of his last six.
DeGrom is 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA in two career starts at Turner Field, giving up nine hits and four earned runs with 18 strikeouts over 11 innings. In 25 innings over four starts overall, he has 38 Ks and a 1.80 ERA.
Friday’s start would have gone to rookie Mike Foltynewicz, but the righty was optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett on Wednesday, leaving the spot open. Manager Fredi Gonzalez said the team “will toss around” who to go with for the start against the Mets in place of Foltynewicz.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“We’ve been trying to monitor, not let him take BP, just get him loose. ... But today it bothered him. That was the deal I made with him, I said, ‘I’ll let you play until I see that it starts bothering you, and when that happens then it’ll be my call.’ And today it was worse. We had our hand specialist here and we saw him, I think it’s just day to day. Hopefully it calms down and we get him back in the lineup.” – Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez Wednesday on the right wrist sprain of first baseman Freddie Freeman.
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
The Mets may have carved out one of the league’s best home records, but Wednesday’s 8-0 loss at Toronto dropped them to 10-20 on the road, better only than the lowly Philadelphia Phillies in the entire league; troubling for a team that leads its division. Manager Terry Collins called the Mets’ struggles away from Citi Field a fluke, an act of randomness. It’s something that must change and probably will. But it’s concerning none the less. “We’ve got to pick it up a little bit,” Collins said. “We’ve got to start playing better on the road.” With so many of their remaining June and July games coming away from home the Mets know this has to change.
PROP TALK
Mets’ starter Jacob deGrom, last year’s NL Rookie of the Year, has been dealing over his last several starts and should be considered a top starter in the big leagues in just his second season. The fire-balling right-hander has struck out 47 batters over his last 37.1 innings, better than 11 per nine innings, and his 90 total whiffs rank seventh in the NL. He fanned nine Braves hitters when the teams met Saturday and has 38 in 25 innings in his career against Atlanta. DeGrom has tossed at least seven innings in each of his last five starts and should collect his share of K’s against the Braves. Check on his strikeout total and take the over.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Braves have surprised a lot of folks with their play this season and they’re hanging around the top of the NL East standings as the Nationals flounder and the Mets can’t win on the road. But seriously, the Braves are not a contender and will fade as we get into the dog days. Mets’ starter Jacob deGrom has been spectacular most of the season, but more so lately. Just five days ago he silenced Atlanta on five hits with nine Ks in seven innings. His only mistake was a first-inning homer to Freddie Freeman, who may not play with a sore wrist. Look for deGrom to do more of the same to the Braves as the Mets temporarily cure their road woes.
New York 5, Atlanta 1
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