Entering this weekend's series, the road team has won eight of the nine games this year between the Atlanta Braves and the Miami Marlins. That could bode well for the visiting Fish in Sunday's finale.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The 43-65 Marlins might have two road wins in Atlanta, but they’re just 17-35 this year away from Marlins Park. They're down 21.56 this season and are just killing bettors when away from their spacious home ball park.
Atlanta is only -3.21 units in 2015, but the team is just 48-60 overall. The Braves tend to play a lot better at home where they check in 27-22 overall.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Dan Jennings hasn't formally announced his rotation for the weekend series yet, but all signs are pointing to Brad Hand getting another start. He only threw 84 pitches against the Mets in his last outing, but he scattered five hits and a walk without allowing a run in four frames.
Obviously, Hand is going to have to be a little more conservative with his pitch count to stick around in this game for four or five frames, but he has a history of being better about his control.
Shelby Miller was literally one out away from throwing a no-hitter against these Marlins in his last start against them on May 17.
Since then, Miller hasn't been quite as dominant, but his 2.44 ERA doesn't lie.
Our concern with Miller is his K/BB ratio of 114/45. That's a lot of walks for just 140 innings of work, and that's what has gotten the righty in trouble the most this year.
QUOTE TO NOTE
"It took me a while to get comfortable again. Those first few innings I was kind of feeling around for everything a little bit. Settled in a little bit. I know I threw a lot of pitches in those first four batters that I got out. I threw 41 pitches in the first four outs. That's never good when you have a short pitch count. I was able to battle and get through four." – Marlins starter Brad Hand on his return to the rotation earlier this week against the Mets
SITUATIONAL BETTING
The Braves are going through closers like they are going out of style. Just in the last month, Jason Grilli landed on the DL for the rest of the year and Jim Johnson was traded. Now, the ball is in the hands of Arodys Vizcaino in the ninth. He has yet to pick up a save yet in his young career, and he only has thrown 11.2 innings thus far in 2015, but his 0.77 ERA shows that he has the goods to be an effective stopper in the ninth.
PROP TALK
The Marlins have had no success against right-handed pitching this year, batting just .239 as a team with an average of 3.34 runs per nine innings.
The real catch though, is the 7.5 strikeouts per nine which the team is averaging against righties as well. Keep that in mind when backing Miller and his strikeout total in this game. The righty fanned just four in his near no-no, but he should do better on Sunday.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Marlins are going to be massive underdogs in this game, and deservedly so. However, we think there is some value here.
The Braves are a mess in the bullpen at the moment, and though Miller could always go the distance, Hand could stick in there with him for five frames or so.
We'll take a stab on Miami in this one for the big price tag, though it will have to likely win this one late to get the 'W'.
Miami 5, Atlanta 4
The MLB lines for this Sunday contest will be first released by BookMaker Sportsbook. Since this game can be seen by anyone with a TV, BookMaker will have a multitude of wagering options available for it. Outside of the normal lines, you can gamble on real-time moneylines, player props and inning totals. Live betting is open during every commercial break!
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker's live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here, so start betting with BookMaker today! The ballgame pitting the Miami Marlins versus the Atlanta Braves will commence at 5:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, August 9, 2015 at Turner Field in Atlanta, GA.
