Fresh off a series sweep against the Cardinals, the Chicago Cubs (40-35, $207) got back in the win column Tuesday and will look to stay there this weekend, kicking off a three game set against the Miami Marlins (32-46, -$1,446) on Friday.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Marlins struggles continue as they plug along with a new manager and without slugger Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup, due to injury.
Over Miami’s last 12 games, they’ve lost nine times, being shut out twice in that span and failing to score more than three runs nine times.
The Cubbies have hit a bit of a rough patch as well, snapping a five game losing streak with a 1-0 win on Tuesday.
Earlier this season, the Cubs took two of three against the Marlins who have been worse since Dan Jennings took over as manager than they were under Mike Redmond, going 16-24.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Chicago has gotten solid production from its rotation this year, ranking seventh in baseball with a 3.73 ERA.
Despite that, their fifth spot is a current black hole as Tsuyoshi Wada is injured and Travis Wood lost the spot early in the year.
The Cubs turned to Donn Roach last time around and the 25-year old right-hander lasted just three and a third innings while allowing four runs and eight hits to the Cardinals. The youngster could get another chance on Friday or the team could turn to another prospect or even turn back to Wood (4.82 ERA) or call upon another arm out of the pen like Edwin Jackson (2.17 ERA).
Whatever direction Joe Maddon chooses to go will not be ideal while the Marlins will have an established starter on the hill against the Cubs’ mystery man.
Tom Koehler gets the nod for Miami. The 29-year old right-hander is having a solid year, going 6-4 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.256 WHIP in 86 innings of work. In his last two outings, he’s combined to go 14 innings, allowing just three runs on nine hits and two walks.
In his career against the Cubs, however, he has been hittable, posting a 4.76 ERA, though his WHIP is just 1.059.
QUOTE TO NOTE
In the middle of their most recent losing streak, Cubs’ manager Joe Maddon pinpointed the team’s biggest issue, saying:
“We have opportunities to get on top, build off it. It’s been there. We just have to do better.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
Despite the duo of Anthony Rizzo (.968 OPS) and Kris Bryant (.847 OPS), the Cubs’ offense has been lacking, ranking No. 22 in baseball in runs scored with 3.95.
Of late, the offense has been even worse than that, averaging just over a run a game over the last seven games.
Outside of the team’s big two sluggers, the team has Miguel Montero (.759 OPS), Chris Coghlan (.793 OPS) and Chris Denorfia (.767 OPS) providing solid numbers, but Starlin Castro (.630 OPS) is ice cold, Addison Russell (.682 OPS) has been struggling again and Dexter Fowler is hitting just .237 with a .312 OBP atop the order.
The team has good young talent, it just needs consistency and a few more role players. It also needs the entire team to find its stroke to break out of the slump.
Even with their latest slump, the Cubs offense has still scored 11 more runs this year than the Marlins’.
Miami is now without its big bat in Giancarlo Stanton who is sidelined with a broken bone in his wrist. With him gone, that is 27 home runs and 67 RBIs out of the lineup, leaving the team with the Dee Gordon (.370 OBP and 26 steals), Justin Bour (.785 OPS) and little else.
After a strong start, Adeiny Hechavarria has cooled off with the bat, leaving the lineup full of guys like Christian Yelich (.664 OPS) and Marcell Ozuna (.668 OPS) who, despite talent, have struggled.
PROP TALK
Castro has had a bad year in the field and at the plate and Cubs fans are losing patience with their once top player.
The youngster, however, does have a bit of success in his career against Koehler going 2 for 7 with a home run. He is the only active Cub with a homer against the Marlins’ starter. Rizzo, meanwhile, is hitless in five at bats and Fowler hitless in seven against the righty.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Cubs have yet to announce their starter, but whomever gets the ball should have success against a poor Marlins’ offense that is without its lone power threat.
Even without a matchup of aces, I expect a lower scoring affair in this one as each offense tries to re-find its way.
Chicago has the slight edge on offense, the Marlins the edge in starters, leaving this up to the other aspects of the team: management, bullpens and defense. The Marlins have committed the fewest errors in baseball, but the other two categories go to the Cubs with a 3.02 bullpen ERA and someone widely regarded as one of the best managers at the helm against a GM turned manager in Jennings.
Chicago 4, Miami 2
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