The resurgent Chicago Cubs (41-25, $307) remain entrenched in the wildcard race and find themselves with a break in this schedule this weekend as they take on the lowly Miami Marlins (33-46, -$1,331) with the middle game coming Saturday night.
ODDS ANALYSIS
A couple wins in their last two against the San Francisco Giants is nice, but the Marlins’ season is already over as they still sit 13-games below .500 and are without their big bat in Giancarlo Stanton.
Even with the back-to-back wins, the Marlins have dropped six of their last nine games and are a pitiful 13-24 away from home.
Interestingly, the Cubs have also won two straight games after a losing stretch. They snapped a five game losing streak on Tuesday on the strength of their pitching thanks to back-to-back shutouts over the Mets while scoring just three runs.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Jarred Cosart will be making his first start since May 13 on Saturday after a stint on the disabled list and a four inning relief stint on Sunday. Cosart will face off against another young gun in Kyle Hendricks.
In his limited time on the mound this year, Cosart is 1-3 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.260 WHIP in 43 2/3 innings. After being acquired from the Astros last year, however, he went 4-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.188 WHIP in 64 innings.
He seemed a bit rusty in his only appearance since his stint on the DL, going four innings against the Dodgers, allowing six hits and walking three.
Cosart’s injury makes him a bit unpredictable as he tries to get back into midseason form. Hendricks does not have that concern, though inconsistency has plagued him this year.
In his last outing, the 25-year old right-hander went six scoreless, allowing just three hits and a walk against the Mets. He also has a complete game shutout to his name against the Padres back in May. Despite that, he’s allowed 10 runs in his last 10 innings before shutting out New York and overall has an inflated 4.15 ERA despite a low 1.181 WHIP. Some of that imbalance is due to the long ball. He has allowed nine this year, more than double the number he allowed last year in nearly the same number of innings.
QUOTE TO NOTE
It was the pitching that carried the Cubs in Hendrick’s last start when they won 1-0. Manager Joe Maddon spoke about the game afterwards saying:
“We pitched really well. They pitched really well. A 1-0 win is always pretty spectacular. But we still have to do a better job offensively. I’m sure they’re saying the same thing on the other side.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
The Cubs do need to do a better job offensively. In their last eight games, they’ve combined for just 10 runs with one shutout and four different games where they managed just a single run.
Chicago has a solid pitching staff, but you cannot win if you don’t score runs.
The Cubs have a nice mix of good young players and solid veterans, but the entire team is slumping right now.
Anthony Rizzo is the team’s offensively leader with a .962 OPS, but has just one hit in his last 14 at bats. Many other players have similar slumps. Despite that, the team has the players to produce runs with Rizzo, Kris Bryant (.838 OPS), Miguel Montero (.758 OPS), Chris Coghlan (.790 OPS) amongst others.
While the Cubs offense has struggled, it has still scored seven more runs than the Marlins in three fewer games this year.
Miami’s offense is especially in trouble now that Giancarlo Stanton (.952 OPS) is on the disabled list. With 27 home runs removed from the lineup, the team has lost most of its power and is left with just speedy second baseman Dee Gordon (.369 OBP) who is still resting some on his torrid April and Justin Bour who outside of Gordon is the only active player with at least 50 plate appearances and an OPS over .681.
PROP TALK
Provided he gets the start, keep an eye on Miguel Montero for prop bets in this one. The veteran catcher has had a pretty solid season so far and has two hits in three at bats lifetime against Cosart. Neither team has seen either starter much, but Montero does have some success.
Montero is also a much better hitter at home with a .827 OPS in Wrigley and a .293 average.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Don’t expect many runs in this one even with Cosart likely a bit rusty and Hendricks anything but consistent.
Each team’s offense is ice cold, but I have the Cubs breaking through for a few runs. They still have their big slugger in Rizzo while Stanton is off the active roster in Miami, leaving them with a 27-year old rookie first baseman and a speedy lead-off man as their top two offensive performers.
Chicago 4, Miami 1
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