Few men in baseball have allowed as many home runs per innings pitched this year as Miguel Gonzalez. That could put the Baltimore Orioles (43-42 SU, -1.15 Units) in bad shape on Saturday night when they take on their crosstown rivals, the Washington Nationals (46-38 SU, -1.01 Units).
PITCHING MATCHUP
Gonzalez only ranks No. 19 in the majors in most home runs allowed with 15, but when you sit back and realize that he has only thrown 88.1 innings, you get more depressed by that stat.
The righty kept the ball in the yard against White Sox in his last start, but before that, he had allowed 11 dingers in his previous eight outings.
Gonzalez does lead the Orioles with seven wins, but there has been a lot of luck here as well. He hasn't thrown more than 101 pitches in a game this year, and rare is the start where he gets out of the seventh inning.
With Wednesday's rain out and Thursday's off day, Washington could decide to mess with its rotation just a bit, as it will want to find a place for Gio Gonzalez to pitch before the All-Star break.
As it stands now, Jordan Zimmermann will be on the bump, and that's great news for live bettors of the Nats. Sure, Zimmermann hasn't had a great last few years against Baltimore (6.23 ERA), but he has been particularly tough on men the deeper he gets into games.
In fact, in those crucial middle innings when batters have gotten a second and third look at him, Zimmermann has been at his best. Between pitches 46 and 75 this year, batters are hitting just .201 against Zimmermann with 20 strikeouts in 94 at bats. It's not a great strikeout percentage, but the fact of the matter is that Zimmermann just doesn't allow great contact, crucial against these Orioles.
ADVANCED STATS
It's not just the fact that Washington is fourth in the bigs in homers that is so concerning. It's that the team has such great power numbers across the board which should worry Gonzalez and the O's.
Yes, a .146 ISO for the year isn't all that impressive, but by National League standards the Nats are fourth best on the season. The only teams in front of them are the Dodgers, Rockies and Reds, and Colorado is a tough team to really consider, knowing that Coors Field is still the most hitter-friendly park in the league.
TALKING BULLPENS
If the Orioles get deep into this game with the lead though, matters should be done with. Sure, there are a few games to play between now and Saturday's duel, but All-Star Darren O'Day hasn't pitched since July 6, while Zach Britton hasn't been in a save situation since July 1 and has thrown just one inning since that point.
The combination of Britton and O'Day has been great this year. O'Day has been used in more high-leverage situations than the somewhat struggling Tommy Hunter in recent weeks, a move which has put Baltimore back on better terms late in games.
Britton, who is 23-of-24 this year in save chances, has been fantastic with the game on the line. Of his seven runs allowed this year, four came in non-save situations. You're not going to find a more reliable closer with the leader than Britton, even against that potent Nats lineup.
The baseball betting odds for this game will first be available at BookMaker Sportsbook. BookMaker is going to have multiple betting options available for this baseball matchup. Live wagering during commercials offers and adjusted moneyline, individual inning run totals and next hitter results. Log in, and start gambling during the game now!
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