While controversy surrounds the Kansas City Royals (35-25, $842) who lead nearly every position in All-Star balloting, the team continues to win, ranking first in the American League.
Their opponents on Thursday, however, aren’t nearly as successful as the Brew Crew (24-41, -$1584) sports the second worst record in baseball.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Brewers started to put things together here in June winning eight of 12 games starting on May 31, but have since dropped each of their last three including their first of four against these Royals.
On the other side, the Royals win on Monday was the team’s fifth victory in the last seven days though it did end a brief two game losing streak after getting swept in a rain shortened two game set against the Cardinals.
Also, before their last seven games, Kansas City hit a skid of their own, dropping nine of 11.
PITCHING MATCHUP
To wrap up the four game set with Kansas City, the Brewers will hand the ball to 26-year old right-hander Jimmy Nelson.
Nelson is 3-7 with a 4.60 ERA and 1.289 WHIP in 78 1/3 innings so far this season. While those numbers aren’t very good, they’re better than the numbers he put up last year where he went 2-9 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.457 WHIP.
In his last outing, Nelson allowed seven runs on 10 hits, including a pair of home runs, in just five innings of work against the Washington Nationals. Interestingly, that did come on the heels of six shutout innings against the Pirates.
The Royals’ starter is a much better 4-4 though his ERA is much higher at 5.79 as is his WHIP at 1.515.
Some of Guthrie’s inflated ERA comes from an absolutely terrible outing against the Yankees where he allowed 11 runs in just a single inning of work. Since then, he has made three starts and has kept his team in the game with a 3.18 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in 17 innings.
QUOTE TO NOTE
The even keeled nature of their manager has a lot to do with the Royals’ success this season. After its second loss to St. Louis this weekend, Ned Yost was asked about if any changes were in order and simply said:
“A lot of times what makes slumps worse is when managers start panicking and trying to push buttons. We know we have a good offensive team.”
Quiet confidence is key for any team.
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
As Yost noted, the Royals do have a good offensive club. The team ranks seventh in the majors with 4.32 runs per game despite just 46 home runs and a .719 OPS.
Kansas City, more than any other team, thrives with putting the ball in play and making things happen.
Of course, sprinkling in a couple players that can drive the ball helps, too. Salvador Perez behind the plate leads the team in home runs with 10 and catches nearly every day for the Royals. That will eventually wear on him and his production will suffer, but likely not on Thursday.
In addition to Perez, the team has several others playing very well including Eric Hosmer (.833 OPS), Mike Moustakas (.830 OPS) and Alex Gordon (.821 OPS). All in all, the only real offensive weaknesses are up the middle on the infield and in right-field where Alex Rios has yet to click since coming off the disabled list.
Milwaukee, unlike Kansas City, has a few more holes in their everyday lineup.
Filled with stars, the Brewers should score more than they do. They’re averaging just 3.68 runs per game and have just three players with an OPS+ over 100 in Adam Lind (127), Ryan Braun (119) and Gerardo Parra (103).
Outside of them, the rest of the lineup has struggled including Carlos Gomez whose OPS is just .741, Aramis Ramirez who is hitting just .212 and Jean Segura who is getting on base at a .317 clip with little pop.
PROP TALK
The Royals have the edge in this game, but keep an eye on Adam Lind. The veteran left-handed bat crushes right-handed pitching with a.881 OPS this year and .861 OPS in his career against them.
Against Guthrie in particular, he has found even more success, going 17 for 47 with a home runs and a .932 OPS.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Royals typically have the edge in the bullpen, but in this game they have the edge in every facet with a more productive offense and superior defensive prowess as well, to go along with their miniscule 1.89 bullpen ERA.
Kansas City 6, Milwaukee 4
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