Few would have believed it back in April, but the Kansa City Royals (44-31, $1,249) and Minnesota Twins (41-37, $1,133) meet in a best of four this Independence Day weekend with them sitting one and two in the AL Central standings. The Twins will look to gain ground on Saturday in the third game of four.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Twins got out in front in the AL Central and have slowly been sliding back down to earth. They, however, are still second in the division and putting up quality performances here and there.
Over their last 11 games, the Twins have dropped seven of them and are just 3-6 head-to-head against the Royals this year.
Kansas City, on the other hand, just got swept by the Houston Astros, but has still won four of their last seven games. They return home for the series with the Twins where they are 22-13 overall.
PITCHING MATCHUP
After two dominant starts, veteran right-hander Joe Blanton hit a snag his last time out, allowing five runs in just two and two-thirds innings.
Blanton started out in the bullpen and has now made three starts for the Royals. He is currently 2-1 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 28 2/3 innings of work. Even with his poor outing behind him, he has impressed after missing all of the 2014 season and going 2-14 with a 6.04 ERA in 2013 for the Angels.
Much like Blanton, the Twins’ starter, Mike Pelfrey, is also coming off his worst start of the season where he allowed eight runs without recording an out in the third inning against the Reds. With that outing added to his previous three, he has a 8.95 ERA in his last four games.
Even with his recent struggles, Pelfrey has had a strong season going 5-5 with a 3.81 ERA though his WHIP is quite inflated at 1.443 and his FIP is 4.10.
While there is certainly plenty to be concerned about with Pelfrey pitching, he did have success against Kansas City in his only start against them this year, going seven shutout innings and recording the win back on April 22.
QUOTE TO NOTE
After Blanton’s last start, manager Ned Yost spoke about what was different after his first couple starts were very good, saying:
“It was pretty simple, he just struggled with command. His first inning was okay, but by the second inning, he was just battling his command the rest of the way.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
Though plagued with numerous mediocre players, the Twins are in the middle of the pack in scoring with 4.22 runs scored per game. Despite a lack of power, the Royals are right there as well, scoring 4.29 runs per game.
As the Twins continue to fall in the standings, they’re grasping at straws in an attempt to stay afloat with their latest straw being the promotion of Miguel Sano.
Sano is the team’s number two prospect behind Byron Buxton who already got the call but hit just .189 and is now on the disabled list.
Many figure Sano is a bit more ready than Buxton was and certainly has the bat to help the Twins. He is still a bit raw, but in Double-A Chattanooga he was hitting .274 with 15 home runs, 18 doubles and 38 walks in 286 plate appearances. His only drawback is the strike out. He struck out 68 times.
Even with the strikeouts, Sano should be able to help the Twins who have little else beyond Brian Dozier (.870 OPS), Torii Hunter (.789 OPS), Trevor Plouffe (.752 OPS) and Eduardo Nunez (.851 OPS) who has only 99 at bats.
Unlike Minnesota, the Royals have a bit more depth to their roster. There is a bit of power with Salvador Perez mashing 13 bombs and Kendrys Morales hitting 10, but the team’s strength is their average, as a team they’re hitting .271.
Individually, Morales (.819), Alex Gordon (.815), Lorenzo Cain (.810), Mike Moustakas (.809) and Eric Hosmer (.799) all have an OPS of .799 or better.
PROP TALK
Joe Mauer is no longer the player he once was, but look for him to have a good game against Blanton. The catcher-turned-first baseman is 11 for 27 life time against the veteran pitcher with a home run.
On the other side, Omar Infante is a sleeper pick for success. The AL leading vote getter at second base for the All-Star game is having anything but an All-Star worthy season. Still, he is 16 for 39 in his career against Pelfrey with a triple and three walks.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Neither pitcher is dominant and neither pitcher’s’ last start inspires confidence going into Saturday’s game; as a result, looking for a high scoring affair.
With the offenses neck and neck and the starters lackluster, the differentiator here is the bullpen and whenever bullpens match up, the Royals typically win the battle.
Glen Perkins is a very good closer for the Twins with a 1.39 ERA and Blaine Boyer (2.48 ERA) has also been solid, but the Royal’s pen ERA (2.06) is almost two runs lower than Minnesota’s (3.92) as they have much more depth in the pen with Greg Holland (2.70), Wade Davis (0.26), Ryan Madson (1.72), Kelvin Herrera (2.32), Jason Frasor (1.61) and so many more.
Kansas City 8, Minnesota 5
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