The Boston Red Sox are holding on to the division lead in the AL East and with the New York Yankees slipping since the break, they look locked in for the division. Sunday represents the Yankees’ final chance against the BoSox in the regular season. It’s also a much more important win for the Bronx Bombers who are starting to see some teams catching up with the Twins, Angels and Orioles all closing the gap, sitting only a couple games back of that first Wild Card spot.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
One of the game’s best rivalries will have its last installment for 2017 barring a postseason meet up.
Such a meet up would require the Yankees to get back into the win column more regularly than they have in the month of August or—more specifically—in the last week. Going into the Boston series, the Yankees are 2-5 in their last seven games.
The Bronx Bombers scored big in their two wins, but managed just seven total runs in their three-game series against the Indians. Aaron Judge remains cold, Aaron Hicks has struggled since coming off the DL and Jacoby Ellsbury hasn’t done anything but live up to his contract.
For Boston, they’re getting their second baseman back this series. Dustin Pedroia is the heart and soul of this team. The Sox are hopeful his return to help jump start and hit-or-miss offense.
The Sox haven’t shown much power at all this year and have been a bit inconsistent at the plate. The play at second has been lackluster in Pedroia’s absence so his return should at least solve one issue.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Without a doubt, this is the best pitching matchup possible for the regular season 2017 swan song for this heated rivalry. We will get to see two All-Star pitchers battle it out for their respective clubs.
For the Red Sox, of course, that means AL Cy Young Award front runner Chris Sale. For the Yankees, it’s Luis Severino.
Sale may end up in a dog fight with Corey Kluber over the league’s Cy Young, but he’s got the upper-hand in wins, innings pitched, strikeouts, FIP and strikeout to walk ratio. He leads the AL in all those categories.
Simply put, Sale has been filthy. He’s hard to hi. He’s struck out 12.8 per nine innings. When he doesn’t record a double-digit strikeout game, it’s an oddity.
The southpaw is also quite skilled at keeping baserunners off base with a 0.912 WHIP driven largely by his ability to keep the ball in the zone. He’s walked just 35 in 185.1 innings of work.
When it’s all said and done, the Sox lefty has been everything Boston has wanted this year, especially against the Yankees. Sale has a 2.12 ERA in four start against New York. He has, however, yet to record a win against the Bronx Bombers.
We can expect another strong performance from Sale. He’ll hold the Yankees down like he has all year, but can he finally get the win? Some of that depends on Severino’s performance.
The young right-hander is 11-6 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.102 WHIP. He’s also striking out 10.6 per nine innings. While those numbers aren’t quite up to Sale’s, they’re not all that far behind.
There is no doubt that Severino is having a great season. One area of concern, however, could be his innings total. He’s already thrown 163.1 innings. He’s not on a known innings limit, but since he’s yet to thrown this many innings in a year, we’re now in uncharted waters with the youngster and fatigue is a concern each and every time out.
To that point, he’s regressed some lately. He allowed four runs—including giving up three homers—in his last start as the Indians handed him a loss.
Despite that, he’s still 6-2 in his last eight games, though included in that run is a career worst 10 runs allowed—eight earned—on eight hits in just 4.1 innings pitched against this same Red Sox team.
LIVE BETTING
Chris Sale has held the Yankees’ current players to a .207 average against him and Judge is 0-for-10 with eight strikeouts in his at bats against the southpaw.
Todd Frazier and Chase Headley each have a pair of homers against Sale. Frazier’s bombs are impressive as they came in only eight at bats.
The Sox have some better numbers against Severino, many propped up on that blowout loss he tossed. Andrew Benintendi personally will be happy to see Severino toe the rubber. He’s 6-for-11 against him with a double, two homers and seven RBIs.
Should this game get into the late innings with the game close or tied, the odds could fall to the road team despite the Yankees’ strong home numbers and the Sox’s lackluster road record.
The reason for that is the bullpens. While the names in the Yankees’ pen indicate, they should be strong. Aroldis Chapman hasn’t lived up to his end of the bargain. This is still a good unit, but right now Craig Kimbrel is more of a sure thing. He’s also go Addison Reed throwing well in a setup role for him. He’s really settled down after a couple rough outings following his trade from the Mets.
QUICK PICK
The Yankees are at home and the splits favor them thus, but New York is under-.500 in August and the Sox are playing better baseball. The Sox are also the better team on paper.
Boston will have a hard time winning this series given the location, but they should win the finale. Sale has pitched well against New York each time he’s faced them this year. While he’s 0-2, it’s not his fault. He’ll keep the score low—at least on the Yankees’ side.
Meanwhile, the Sox already stuck it to Severino in his last start so the youngster must overcome those confidence issues this time around. He’ll be better, but he’ll also be fatigued. Sale goes seven strong and leaves with a slight lead, Severino keeps New York in the game, but ultimately takes the loss in a hard-fought battle.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 4, Yankees 2
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