The Miami Marlins are playing as well as any team right now and making a run, putting themselves at least in the October conversation with a month to go in the regular season. Given the lead, the Fish will not catch the Washington Nationals in the NL East, but the Wild Card is now a remote possibility. To keep that hope alive, however, they’ll need to prove they can at least hold their own against the division leaders in a three-game set starting on Monday.
This series will be contested from Monday, August 28, 2017 through Wednesday, August 30, 2017 at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C.
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Pitching Matchups
Max Scherzer missed his last start with neck inflammation, but looks ready to return on Monday. He’ll pick up right where he left off.
Even on a team with Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon, the leader in rWAR is Scherzer at 6.7. He’s been that good. The right-hander is 12-5 in 24 starts with a 2.25 ERA and 0.848 WHIP. The National are 16-8 when he takes the hill. His WHIP leads the league and so does his FIP which sits at 2.82. He’s striking out a league leading 12.3 per nine innings and is tops in the NL with just 5.4 hits per nine, too.
Scherzer is the model of consistency and—save for a one inning stint where he left due to injury—can be expected to go deep in the game. He can also be counted on to allow three runs or fewer. He’s only allowed more in three of his 24 games.
In his last three starts against Miami, Scherzer threw 16 innings, allowing just four runs—two earned—on seven hits. He struck out 20 in those games.
Jose Urena will matchup against the Nats’ ace on Monday. He’s pitched well and is 12-5 with a 3.68 ERA, but he’s gotten a bit lucky.
The youngster has a FIP of 5.00 as his walk rate is elevated and he’s striking out just 6.2 per nine innings. In fact, his strikeout to walk ratio is just under two.
Without dominating in terms of strikeouts, the young right-hander has still been able to get key outs when needed. He should also have confidence against Washington. He held them to just one run in eight innings in his last start against them.
Moving on to the second game, there figures to be a matchup between Justin Nicolino and Stephen Strasburg.
Strasburg—as normal—has spent time on the DL, but when healthy, he’s been great. The All-Star is 10-4 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.085 WHIP in 22 starts and has 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings.
He’s looked good since coming off the DL, pitching 12 innings and giving up two runs on seven hits. Both runs came in his first game back. He went six scoreless against Houston in his last start.
Nicolino, on the other hand, just had a rough outing, giving up six runs on eight hits to the Phillies in just 2.1 innings pitched. Before that, he had a couple good outings, combining for 10.1 innings and two earned runs.
The southpaw and former top prospect pitched better in the minors, but even there, he’s posted high walk rates and low strikeout numbers.
To wrap the series, the Marlins will hope for a bounce back from Adam Conley. The right-hander allowed five runs in 5.1 innings against the Padres in his last start. Before that, he threw back-to-back quality starts, but is still has a 5.28 over his last five starts, however. He allowed 11 hits in five innings the last time he faced Washington.
The Nats’ starter for the game is undecided. A.J. Cole filled in for Scherzer on Friday and would’ve been on schedule, but was sent back to Triple-A despite a strong start. Edwin Jackson could get the start. He’s been good in his seven starts, going 4-3 with a 2.93 ERA. He’s been a bit lucky given eight homers in 43 innings, but he’s done his job.
Who's Hot?
Howie Kendrick has been a huge pick up for the Nationals given the injuries. He’s stepped in nicely, hitting .365 with five homers and 18 RBIs in 22 games. Wilmer Difo’s average has been over .300 in August, too, as he continues to make the Nats forget all about Trea Turner.
With Harper out, Ryan Zimmerman has continued to provide power. He, like Kendrick, has hit five homers this month, though he’s batting just .221.
On the mound, Sean Doolittle continues to be lights out. He’s allowed a single run this month in 11 innings. He’s 8-for-8 in save chances, locking down the previously wide-open closer’s role. That—along with a few other acquisitions—has allowed the pen to fall into place.
While the Nationals have a few hot players, nobody in the game is as hot as Giancarlo Stanton right now. The slugger hit yet another homer on Sunday, his 50th on the year. He went 3-for-3 in that game as he continues to dominate in the two-hole.
Stanton is now posting a .296/.389/.670 slash line. He’s hit 17 home runs in August and driven in 35 runs. He’s batting .374 with a .472 OBP in that time. Going back further, he’s hitting .324 with 23 homers and 47 RBI since the All-Star break just 40 games ago.
While Stanton gets all the attention—and rightfully so given his numbers—Marcell Ozuna has hit seven homers and has a .982 OPS in August. Christian Yelich and Derek Dietrich have OBPs of .381 and .400 respectively in the month.
Along with an improved offense, the Marlins’ pitching has stepped up in August, too, allowing for the impressive run.
Brad Ziegler hasn’t allowed a run in 12 innings and is 9-for-9 in saves situations. Kyle Barraclough has been lights out recently, too.
Who's Not?
There isn’t much not going right for Miami lately. Some of the picture has struggled, though mostly in the rotation.
On offense, J.T. Realmuto is hitting .180 in August with a .568 OPS. The team’s overcome that, however.
For the Nationals, Anthony Rendon has slowed his pace. He’s hitting .221 in August and has just a single homer in the month. Michael Taylor and Matt Wieters are also seeing a lot of playing time right now despite a .194 and .177 August average respectively.
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