After winning back-to-back series against the Orioles and Angels on the road, the Astros will return home in hopes of keeping their mojo rising after playing two in the desert to close out their series with the also recently streaking Diamondbacks.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Even after taking a weekend set with the division rival Padres, the Snakes still have a major hill to climb if it’s to indeed live up to preseason expectations and become a contender within the division. Manager Chip Hale’s squad has cost baseball bettors a not so cool $747 overall with a bulk of it coming at home where they’re nearly $1300 in the hole. The team’s been a completely different animal away from Chase Field however with it scratching out wins in 14 of 25 games played good for a $550 return on investment.
Houston’s more or less in the same boat as the D’backs in that it had lofty expectations thrust upon it in the preseason, and so far, has come up woefully short of stepping up to the plate for its season win total over backers as well as those that took flyers on them to win the World Series. What differs between these teams is that the Astros have actually been a better bet at home where they’re .500 and down $451 as opposed to being $884 in the red and seven games under .500 when on the road.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Zach Greinke is making an exorbitant amount of money as the team’s staff ace. I threw up a little in my mouth when I read that he was actually making $31,799,030 per year to go to the bump every fifth day and not even own the best ERA on the starting staff. It did however look like he was turning it around in May with three of his four outings leading up to his last of quality, but he then went out on Saturday and gave up 4 ER and a homer with a K/BB ratio of 2:1 through six innings against the Padres wretched offense.
While Arizona’s won seven of his 11 overall starts, it has more to do with the fact that he’s been given 5.0 runs per game to work with than his overall performance on the hill.
After shocking the baseball community by taking home the AL Cy Young Award last season, Dallas Keuchel firmly entrenched himself on the stud map and was highly sought after in season-long fantasy drafts before the season began. He was routinely selected in the fifth and sometimes fourth rounds, but boy do his current team owners wish they hadn’t made that pick if they haven’t traded him already. The righty is 3-6 overall with a bloated 5.56 ERA through 11 starts, and has grossly failed to live up to his average draft position. He’s been much easier to hit in 2016 evidenced by his 1.47 WHIP and 9.9 hits per nine innings average.
He has however been a bit better at Minute Maid where his ERA is down half a run and he’s allowed just two of eight home runs.
LIVE BETTING
Prop bettors best make it a point to target Jose Altuve in this one. Though the miniature two-bagger has been slumping of late, he’s collected a hit in four straight games and enters the series off a 4-for-6 effort in Anaheim. It’s possible he’s about to go on another hot streak.
Lifetime against Greinke, he’s raked eight hits in 15 at-bats with three going for extra bases including a home run. He’s also only struck out once.
QUICK PICK
Six of Keuchel’s 10 overall starts saw both teams combine to hit the over six times. It’s also cashed in two of his last three starts, but for the season, the under has been the profitable investment with it cashing in three of his four home starts.
Greinke’s allowed just 31 hits through 31 innings of work and owns a 3.19 ERA and .265 BAA through six lifetime outings at Minute Maid. Each of his four starts away from Chase Field has been of quality with him allowing a grand total of six earned runs.
Look for the starting pitchers to dominate this one which will ultimately lead to a low scoring final score.
MLB Odds: Astros 3, Diamondbacks 2
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