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If you’re not wagering with BookMaker Sportsbook then you’re just another square bettor. Shop for MLB lines where the pros do so register for your own betting account at BookMaker now! The ballgame pitting the American League versus the National League will commence Tuesday, July 11, 2017, at 8:00 p.m. ET at Marlins Park. The matchup will be televised nationally on FOX.
The Indians’ bench coach Brad Mills has been manning the helm for Cleveland while Terry Francona has been treated for an irregular heartbeat. The bench coach for the reigning AL Champions will be at the helm for the AL in the All-Star Game, too, with Ray’s manager Kevin Cash joining the coaching staff. This provides a nice little wrinkle in a game that will already be without the league’s best player—Mike Trout.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The American League is 16-3-1 since 1997. The National League, however, has one more win overall in the history of the mid-summer classic, 43-42.
One big change to the All-Star game that could have a major impact on how the game is managed and how it is played is the home-field advantage in the World Series.
Previously, the winning league got home field advantage in the Fall Classic, but the commissioner’s office did away with that ridiculous rule this year, turning the game back into the exhibition game it was always meant to be.
Because of that, the incentive to win is reduced meaning we’re likely to see managers work harder to get as many players into the game rather than having a greater emphasis on the win.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Starting pitching really doesn’t mean much in the Mid-Summer Classic as no pitcher goes more than a couple innings.
Nevertheless, the first two up for either side figures to be Max Scherzer for the National League against Chris Sale for the AL side.
With Kershaw getting the start on Sunday and out for the All-Star game, the decision to give the ball to Scherzer should be rather straight forward. The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner is having a better year in 2017 than he did last year.
His 10-5 record would be even better if the team had a bullpen behind him, but his 2.10 ERA and 0.779 WHIP lead the league as does his 2.61 FIP and his 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings. All those numbers are also superior to what he produced last year. He’s already been worth five rWAR in the first half.
As for Sale, he’s 11-4 with a 2.75 ERA and 0.901 WHIP. His FIP is 2.09 and he trumps Scherzer in strikeouts per nine innings at 12.5 and in his strikeout to walk ratio which sits at 8.09.
After the starters each get an inning or two, we typically see a couple more starters toe the rubber before each team turns to its collection of closers to slam the door.
Both squads have good options to eat up the early frames. For the NL, Carlos Martinez, Robbie Ray, Zack Greinke and Stephen Strasburg are all available as is Alex Wood who takes Kershaw’s spot. Wood leads the league in ERA, but also has experience in relief, making him a very valuable commodity.
For the AL side, there are a bunch of generally middle-of-the-road starters having great seasons like Ervin Santana and Jason Vargas along with a few young, high-upside arms like Luis Severino and Lance McCullers Jr. to go along with what is now a much deeper bullpen than the NL.
The National League side does have Pat Neshek to help get out of mid-inning jams with a unique arm angle, but the AL has replaced Dallas Keuchel, Michael Fulmer and Yu Darvish with relievers: Chris Devenski, Brandon Kintzler and Roberto Osuna.
On the AL side, that means, Devenski, Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances all represent non-closers who can then bridge the gap to the likes of Craig Kimbrel, Kintzler and Osuna in the last few frames.
For the NL side, they’ll need a few more starters to combine to get them to their closers. Neshek and Hand are the only non-closers on that roster though Wade Davis, Greg Holland and Kenley Jansen are potentially much more lockdown in the last three innings than the AL’s options. Meanwhile, Corey Knebel isn’t too shabby himself if he’s handed the sixth.
In total, the NL has the better pitching staff by name while the AL may be a bit better equipped with mid-game relievers, though Wood becomes the real wildcard here and a potentially huge asset for Joe Maddon.
OFFENSIVE MATCHUP
Based on per numbers, eight of the top-11 players in the game per OPS are in the National League. Interestingly, only four of them are in the starting lineup, but that gives Maddon the luxury of going to one of the top sluggers in the game in a key situation late in the game.
The AL has several surprise All-Stars including Justin Smoak, Jose Ramirez, Corey Dickerson, Yonder Alonso and Avisail Garcia; each of whom earned their spot with huge breakout seasons.
On the NL side, it’s more common, expected names with some exceptions like Ryan Zimmerman and Zack Cozart who have put together amazing first-halves.
Overall, the NL side of the house does seem a bit deeper at the dish. Having the luxury of using Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger at the most opportunity times throughout the game could really come in handy provided the pitchers are able to keep this game close.
When it comes to power, there should be no surprise that these two teams are rather balanced. We’ve seen homers fly out of the parks early and often this year and both rosters are stacked full of home run potential. Speed favors the AL team with Jose Altuve and Mookie Betts, but both are starters, leaving neither team with any great pinch running options. Of all the reserve players on either squad, it’s Goldschmidt with the most steals and he’s not likely to come in as a pinch runner given his dominance with the stick.
LIVE BETTING
The American League have a larger number of replacement players than the National League heading into the weekend festivities.
Wood takes over for Kershaw, but on the AL side, Chris Archer, Robinson Cano, Devenski, Kintzler, Osuna and Justin Upton all join the fold.
Of the seven adds, four are newcomers to the All-Star game. When rosters were first announced, there were 12-first time all-stars announced, one more than there was last year in San Diego.
With so much new blood in the game, it’ll be a nice exhibition of the some of the game’s lesser known talent. That could make for some good relatively unknown matchups and some great in-game betting opportunities for those keeping a close eye on matchup stats.
QUICK PICK
The American League reign of dominance must end sometime. On the mound, the NL seems to have a slight edge even if not quite as equipped for the middle innings. At the front of the game and the end of the game, this team is stacked.
Meanwhile the starting lineup matches up with the starting nine the AL touts while the bench appears to be a bit deeper considering the glut of sluggers.
Neither team has a clear advantage, but the NL has home field advantage and a deeper team than they’ve had in years. The pen is strong—one of their weaknesses over the last few years compared to the AL—and the rotation is even stronger.
MLB Odds: National 6, American 4
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