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BookMaker is the only online sportsbook where you can get the earliest MLB moneylines, runlines, totals and props. If you want to wager on baseball odds like the pros do, you need to join BookMaker today! The MLB Home Run Derby will take place on Monday, July 10, 2017 at 8 p.m. ET at Marlins Park. The event will be televised live on ESPN.
Giancarlo Stanton enters the Home Run Derby as the No. 1 seed, looking to defend his crown on his home turf. It took him 61 bombs to win the title last year and with the ball flying even more in 2017, we may see even more fireworks this go around. This is one of the youngest Home Run Derby classes in recent memory, but given the numbers some of the contestants have put up, it could make for some great television.
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2017 PARTICIPANTS AND ODDS
No. 1 Seed: Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins – 24 home runs in 2017
No. 2 Seed: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees – 30 home runs in 2017
No. 3 Seed: Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers – 25 home runs in 2017
No. 4 Seed: Mike Moustakas, Kansas City Royals – 25 home runs in 2017
No. 5 Seed: Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins – 21 home runs in 2017
No. 6 Seed: Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies – 19 home runs in 2017
No. 7 Seed: Justin Bour, Miami Marlins – 20 home runs in 2017
No. 8 Seed: Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees – 13 home runs in 2017
PARTICIPANT BREAKDOWN
When the lines opened, Stanton was the early favorite, but Judge now sits as the overall favorite, having already hit 30 bombs on the season.
Stanton’s odds still sit at a very favorable +170. The reigning champion has a good idea of what it takes to win a derby and has the hometown fans behind him to provide that little extra motivation.
While Judge, Bellinger and Moustakas have all out slugged him this season, he’s got the experience hitting in Marlins Park and knows how the ballpark plays. While only 27-years old, he also has the most prolific track record as a power hitter. He’s now in his eighth season at the big-league level and while injures have limited his total home run production, he’s already led the league in homers once and is averaging 41 bombs per 162 games, slugging 232 in his still relatively young career.
Stanton has been the favorite young home-run hitter of baseball for a few years now, but he’s been unseated in 2017 by the duo of Judge and Bellinger.
Judge seems to get more publicity and his baseball leading 30-home runs certainly merit much acclaim, but Bellinger has hit 25-bombs in fewer at-bats after starting the year in the minor leagues. The two have drawn an awful lot of comparisons as both are taking their respective leagues by storm. It could make for much watch TV if they meet head-to-head in the second round.
Judge is sitting at +150 while Bellinger is third in the odds at +400, one of only three with odds of winning better than the +1295 of Miguel Sano, another fun, young slugger.
Sano was a popular pick for a big year in 2016, but suffered a sophomore slump. He’s having the monster season here in 2017, however. He’s hitting .279 with 21 homers and a .545 slugging percentage.
Sano will matchup against Moustakas in the opening round, pinning a couple AL Central foes head-to-head. Moustakas has already hit 25 homers and has a .559 slugging percentage. His OBP remains a bit low as his plate discipline still leaves something to be desired, but in a competition like this, it really doesn’t matter.
Moving further down the list, Blackmon is the Rockies’ representative. Carlos Gonzalez appeared in the derby last year, but is having a dismal season. Nolan Arenado gets the attention in Colorado while Mark Reynolds may be the best equipped for the derby, but Blackmon has had the best season of any Rockies’ hitter to date. He brings power, contact and speed to the table. The question is: does that make him more equipped for the actual game than the derby? Per the odds makers: yes. At +2202, he has the worst odds to win, but as the No.6 seed, he could be a sleeper pick. Unfortunately, he has to go against Bellinger in the first round.
The list of contestants ends with Bour and Sanchez. Bour is having a strong season for the host team and has a better slugging percentage than Stanton. His 20 homers qualify him for the derby and he could surprise, but is matched up with derby favorite Aaron Judge in round 1.
As for Sanchez, he’s already been part of a controversy for his selection. He’s only hit 13 homers, putting him well below several other hitters. Logan Morrison, who already has 24 homers, called him out noting he reached 13 bombs months ago. The truth of the matter, however, is Sanchez missed some time due to injury and did have a slow start, but he’s swinging really well now and captured the nation’s attention with his historic late-season home run barrage last year.
DERBY FORMAT
We are now in year three of the ‘new’ derby format. The single elimination format provides excitement all the way through the tournament with head-to-head battles each step of the way. That’s allowed for a bracket format, making projecting, picking and following the derby that much more exciting.
The seeding is a little interesting this year. Typically, seeding is done based on the total number of home runs hit at the time the bracket was made. This year, Stanton gets the top-seed despite fewer homers than three other contests. That’s because of his derby win a season ago, coupled with his hometown hero status in Miami.
The success or failure of a player relies largely on his pitcher. This is a timed event so each hitter has a set amount of time to crush as many home runs as possible. Wither a swinging and missing or laying off a pitch, the time is still reduced. That said, more time can be earned with tape measure blasts, thus encouraging players to hit the moonshots that fans want to see.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Judge is the easy pick based on how he’s played so far, but the derby is a completely different monster. Plus, he has the misfortunate of matching up with Cody Bellinger provided both rookie sluggers get past their first round.
Look for both Judge and Bellinger to dominate in Round 1, but being able to continue that two more rounds will be difficult for either.
The other side of the bracket may have the easier path. Stanton is playing in a familiar park and has shown the ability to cater his swing to an event like this. Amongst the favorites, he appears to the safest pick, though Judge and Bellinger remain very intriguing.
Home run distance is a factor and Judge owns the longest homer of the year at 495 feet. He also has five of the six highest exit velocities this year with Stanton owning the other.
Judge has the best average exit velocity in baseball, but Miguel Sano is second. He could be a very interesting sleeper pick.
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