If the three games these two teams played against each other earlier in the season at Chase Field are any indication, runs should be plentiful. The Pirates won two of those games by scores of 8-7 and 12-10 and the over is 13-8 in their games at PNC Park.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Diamondbacks will invade Pittsburgh with the comfort of being the road team. What’s that, you ask? Well, Arizona would rather play on the road this season than at home, where it’s a brutal 7-17 and hasn’t sold out Chase Field since opening day. Away from Phoenix, the D-Backs are 14-8, including a solid 7-2 win Sunday in St. Louis.
It’s the continuation of a three-year trend for the Diamondbacks, who went 33-48 at home in 2014 and 39-42 last year. By contrast, they notched a 40-41 road mark in 2015, their fifth-most wins away from home in franchise history. Since losing three straight at Miami in early May, the D-Backs went 7-2 over their next nine road games, up 6.26 units on the moneyline.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Patrick Corbin (2-3, 3.99 ERA) got the win his last time out against the Cardinals when he allowed two runs in 6.1 innings. It was his first win since Apr. 17. While he walked four batters, he limited the Cards to four hits and matched his season-high with seven strikeouts. After a rough go early, Cobrin has rebounded with three straight quality starts and a 2.29 ERA in that span.
Much like the team, Corbin’s numbers are far superior on the road this season. He’s 2-0 with a 2.01 ERA in five road starts, compared to 0-3 with a 6.48 ERA in four home outings. Corbin took the loss by surrendering seven hits and four earned over six innings to the Pirates on Apr. 22.
Gerrit Cole (5-3, 2.79 ERA) helped the Pirates to a 2-1 win over the Rockies in his last start despite allowing 10 hits and not striking out a single batter. It was an odd start as he failed to record a strikeout for the first time in his career, yet he won his third straight start and for the fifth time in his last six.
Cole pitched past the sixth inning in each of his last two outings, a first this season, and he owns a 1.29 ERA over his last three starts. Cole is 2-1 with a 3.10 ERA in three career starts against Arizona.
LIVE BETTING
Opposing pitchers better look out because Paul Goldschmidt is starting to swing it. Mired in a season-long slump, the D-Backs slugging first baseman is coming off an impressive series in St. Louis where he hit .500 with three RBIs. His average is slowly starting to climb, up to .245 after the Cardinals series, but Goldy continues to get on base at an impressive clip. He’s walked 43 times this year and his on-base percentage is a remarkable .412. He’s hit safely in five of six games following Sunday’s outburst with a spiffy .400 average over that time.
Should the game come down to a late-inning showdown between Goldschmidt and Pirates closer Mark Melancon, the D-Backs will feel good about their chances. Goldschmidt is hitting .571 over his career against Melancon with two of his four hits leaving the yard.
QUICK PICK
The Pirates look to close out a lengthy homestand and keep applying the pressure on the first-place Cubs in the NL Central by beating the Diamondbacks in the series finale. The Bucs took five of the first seven on their home stay and are on a nice run with six wins in their last eight overall following a series-ending win in Chicago on May 15.
Cole got the streak going by shutting out the Cubs for eight innings and limited the high-powered Rockies to a single run in his last start. He’s gone deep into his last two starts and has pitched well. Look for Cole and the Pirates to cool off the Diamondbacks, who are completing their six-game road trip.
MLB Odds: Pittsburgh 5, Arizona 3
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