The Houston Astros suffered their first losing month in August, but have started to turn the corner in September, going 6-4 in the team’s last 10 games. Of course, that was despite being swept in four games at the hands of the Athletics. The Astros will need to rebound in a hurry if they want to catch the Indians for best record in the AL. The Los Angeles Angels, on the other hand, will be a formidable opponent this week. In a best of three, the Angels have the better motivation. They’re still on the outside looking in to the AL Wild Card picture while the Astros all-but-have the AL West locked up.
This series will be contested from Tuesday, September 12, 2017 through Thursday, September 14, 2017 at Fenway Park in Boston. For those outside the local TV markets, Thursday night’s game will be broadcast nationally on MLB Network.
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Pitching Matchups
It’s the second time around for both Justin Verlander and Lance McCullers Jr., scheduled to take the hill on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively for the Astros. Houston wraps up the series with Brad Peacock on the mound.
Verlander made his Houston debut in Seattle and will get start No. 2 on the road as well. In his first outing, he went six solid innings, allowing only one run. Essentially, he came as advertised. He was a strong veteran arm, able to work his way through the Mariner lineup a few times.
The 34-year old right-hander has been okay in his career against the Angels, going 6-8 with a 3.79 ERA in 17 starts. The better numbers to look at are Verlanders’ record and ERA in September. The righty gets better as the season goes on. September has been the best month of his career as he’s 34-17 with a 3.16 ERA in the season’s final month.
While Verlander will be making his second start for the Astros, his opponent on Tuesday—Garrett Richards—will be making his third. After suffering a bicep strain in his season debut, Richards went on the DL and first came back in his last start, facing Oakland. This will be the right-hander’s first start at Angel Stadium since April of 2016.
Before getting the injury bug, the righty was one of the AL’s better pitchers. He looked close to that guy on September 5 against Oakland. He went only 3.1 innings due to a low pitch count, but threw well, allowing only one run. He threw 52 pitches in that game and will likely be given upwards of 75 in this one.
The return of McCullers to the Astros’ rotation is just a big of an add as the acquisition of Verlander.
McCullers is crucial as a No. 3 starter in the playoffs. He’s 7-3 with a 3.97 ERA in 20 starts. He’s had two stints on the DL including the latest one. So far, he’s gone just one start since his DL stint, going 5.1 innings against the Mariners and allowing three runs.
Matching up against McCullers is a young talented southpaw for the Angels, Tyler Skaggs.
Skaggs is only 1-5 with a 4.86 ERA in 12 starts since his own DL stint. He’s thrown 63 innings.
Skaggs is coming off one of his better starts. He allowed three runs in six innings in his last start, striking out nine Oakland players in the process. Houston pelted him for five runs in five innings the last time he faced them.
The series will wrap on Thursday with Peacock against Ricky Nolasco.
Peacock has really grabbed the starting spot by the horns. He’s struck out 124 batters as a start this year in 94.2 inings of work in that role. He’s thriving in the rotation. He’s 10-2 with a 3.05 ERA. By comparison, Nolasco is 6-13 with a 5.19 ERA. He didn’t even make it out of the fourth in his last start.
Betting Trends
The Angels are 22-15 since the start of August as they push towards October baseball. The team added Brandon Phillips and Justin Upton to the lineup to help stabilize the top of the batting order. Phillips has hit yet, but Upton is swinging well. With Phillips ahead of him and Upton behind him, Mike Trout now has a little extra protection in the order. The deals have also allowed Los Angeles to move Andrelton Simmons, C.J. Cron, Kole Calhoun and Albert Pujols down in the order, taking pressure off them and greatly deepening the order.
While Los Angeles has battled to stay in the hunt, the Astros have lost significant ground in the last couple months. Houston went 15-9 in July and was on a roll; then, August came. The Astros are 17-23 since.
There’s no doubt that the Astros’ slide was—in part—due to the front office’s inactivity in July. The addition of Verlander in August is a nice morale booster move. It looks to be working as Houston is 6-4 in September.
Head-to-head, the Astros have topped the Angels in eight of 13 games. On the other side, the two teams are tide having both scored 53 runs in the season series.
Players to Watch
Carlos Correa has made eight starts since his return from the DL and it’s no coincidence that just when he’s back in the order for Houston, the team starts to turn the corner.
Correa is a crucial part of this lineup and even with missing a month of play, Correa is second on the team in rWAR behind only AL MVP front runner Jose Altuve.
With Correa back in the fold, the Astros lineup is all-of-a-sudden one of the deepest in recent memory once again. That’s what truly makes this lineup so good. Yes, Altuve, Correa and George Springer are an enviable trio for just about any team, but unsung heroes like Marwin Gonzalez, Josh Reddick, Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel all help to keep the offense rolling.
For the Angels, the player to watch is always Mike Trout. He’s the guy you go pay to see play. Andrelton Simmon’s is that guy, too. The shortstop may garner some fringe MVP consideration with his play. His glove is otherworldly leading to a staggering rWAR. His offense has, historically, been a weakness, but that’s come around this season.
Justin Upton, of course, is another player to watch. He’s the protection for Trout and has been swinging well in the nine games since the trade. He’s as hot-and-cold as they come the game, but when he’s one, he looks poised at the plate and he can do serious damage, carrying a club.
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