The Yankees are still trying to catch the Boston Red Sox while the Houston Astros are neck-and-neck with the Indians for the AL’s best record, but there’s a good chance this four-game set between the Sox and the Astros is a preview of the very same ALDS matchup we will get to see next week. If that is the case, both teams will do what they can to win final series of the regular season to build confidence, but neither will want to reveal their entire hand in preparation for October.
This series will be contested from Thursday, September 28, 2017 through Sunday, October 1, 2017 at Fenway Park in Boston. Saturday’s showdown will be broadcast nationally on FOX.
Bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Pitching Matchups
The series starts on Thursday with an interesting matchup between Brad Peacock and Eduardo Rodriguez.
Peacock has had a surprisingly strong season filling in. He began the year in the pen and may be back there for October, but he’s made a strong bid to be one of the four playoff starters. The right-hander has a career high 12 wins. He’s 12-2 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.197 WHIP in 127 innings. He’s pitched in 33 games, including 20 starts.
The Astros are 21-12 when the right-hander has been on the mound and are 3-1 in his four September starts. He doesn’t go more than five or six innings, but gives his team a chance to win each time out. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last six starts.
As for Rodriguez, the young southpaw is 6-6 with a 3.91 ERA in 24 games. He’s struggled at times with his control. Walking 48 batters, but has been lights out at times, too. He’s notched 148 strikeouts this year and has a 3.87 FIP.
The 24-year old is coming off 7.2-innings of shutout ball against the Reds and has pitched well in September with a 1.78 ERA in four starts.
In the series’ second game, Doug Fister takes the mound for the Sox. The former Astro has been a surprise for Boston. He’s 5-8 with a 4.87 ERA. It’s not great, but he had been throwing exceptionally well until his last three starts. In that time, he’s allowed 14 runs, 19 hits and six walks in 11.1 innings.
Charlie Morton pitches on Friday for the Astros. The veteran right-hander is 13-7 with a 3.63 ERA in a respectable season. He’s been better than that lately. In his last 11 starts, he’s 6-3 with a 3.00 ERA while posting a 1.09 WHIP and 10.36 strikeouts per nine innings over the 66 frames.
The season continues Saturday with each team’s biggest enigma heading into the postseason: Lance McCullers Jr. and Drew Pomeranz.
McCullers is coming off the DL. He’s made just two starts since getting sidelined in July and is trying to earn a spot in the ALDS rotation—or at least on the roster.
When healthy, McCullers is the clear Game 3 starter, but the right-hander threw just 3.1 innings on Sunday, allowing a pair of runs to the Angels. He went 5.1 innings in his first start back, but still threw only 76 pitches. His line that day looked better than he did on the hill.
Overall, McCullers is 13-8 with a 4.01 ERA, but how deep will he go on Saturday?
The questions around Pomeranz are a bit different for the Red Sox. After an All-Star first half last year, Pomeranz fell off the table. He was riding strong this year up until his last two starts when his velocity took a nose dive.
The reason for the velocity dip is unknown, but it’s a concern. Is he injured? Is he just tired? The latter may be true. He went 170.2 innings last year, but showed signs of fatigue way before that. He’s at 167.2 innings in 2017.
In all, his numbers are still impressive. He’s 16-6 with a 3.38 ERA. Those numbers, however, are more indicative of what he can do with his velocity. Unless it spikes back up, he’s in trouble. The last time out, Toronto stuck it to him, collecting five runs on seven hits as Pomeranz never even got an out in the third inning.
To close out the season, the Red Sox will turn to Chris Sale. Like Pomeranz, Sale has regressed lately. His regression, however, is less pronounced. Still, he allowed four homers to the Blue Jays in his last start and has allowed nine long balls over his last five games. That’s a dangerous trend against a power laden Astros lineup.
Still, even with the latest trends, Sale is an ace. His 17-8 record and 2.90 ERA prove that point.
Houston hasn’t announced its start for Sunday. The choice may depend on the situation in the standings, but Collin McHugh would be in turn for the start given Houston’s recent use of a six-man rotation.
McHugh is a dependable arm. He missed all but 11 starts this year, but is 4-2 with a 3.45 ERA in those 11 starts.
Injury Concerns
The health status of McCullers, as noted above, is a potential issue for the Astros though the team does have other rotation options and a plethora of pitching with the expanded roster if he cannot go deep in the game.
The more concerning health issues for Houston are the forearm of Jose Altuve and back of Josh Reddick. Neither are considered major injuries, but even small nagging issues could cause Houston to sit its players in preparation for October.
Altuve, of course, is a leading MVP candidate. His loss is huge. Batting .348 with a .968 OPS and 32 steals, Altuve does it all. Reddick, meanwhile, is an issue given Jake Marisnick already puts Houston down a man in the outfield. Derek Fisher and Cameron Maybin are options, but they’re hitting .209 and .160 respectively in their time in Houston.
While Houston has a few nagging injuries, Boston has the bigger questions. Even if we don’t consider a possible injury leading to Pomeranz’s velocity drop, the Sox are still nursing injuries to Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia and Eduardo Nunez.
This is Pedroia’s team. He’s a spark at the top of the order with a .370 OBP. If he and Nunez are both out, second base becomes a gapping whole in the lineup. Either way, Nunez’s bat will be missed. He and Rafael Devers really sparked this team when they came on board. The Sox have seen a drop in power in 2017. They’re last in the league in homers, but the offense has been chugging along, sparked—in part—by Nunez’s .321 average.
As for Betts, he was a top-2 finisher in the MVP race last year. He hasn’t been as good in 2017, but he’s still cornerstone bat in the order that helps the lineup fall into place. Even if he plays, is his wrist healthy? Will it impact his swing?
Betting Trends
The Red Sox are 15-8 in September and 33-17 since the start of August. They’re playing great baseball, but are still trying to wrap up the AL East race. With that in mind, the Sox have much more to play for in this series than the Astros who are simply looking for home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Boston’s recent numbers are good despite the concerning showing from Sale and Pomeranz last time out and the injuries to some key players. They also won two of three against Houston when the teams met in Boston. Despite just one win, Houston did outscore the Sox in that series, 13-9.
While Boston has been playing great baseball, Houston is streaking towards the finish line, too.
After a slow August, Houston is dominating again. They’re 17-7 in September and are 10-2 in their last dozen games.
Offensively, the Astros have the better team. Boston only has five players with an OPS+ north of 95. Houston has 10 with at least 250 plate appearances. There are four more who have accomplished the feat in smaller sample sizes.
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
