The Seattle Mariners round out a difficult first-half with a four game series against the division cellar-dwelling Oakland Athletics. Coming into the series, Seattle is as close in the standings to the A’s at the bottom of the AL West as they are to a wildcard spot in what has been a rather mediocre American League.
This series will be contested from Thursday, July 6, 2017 through Sunday, July 9, 2017 at Safeco Field in Seattle.
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Pitching Matchups
The series kicks off on Thursday with Paul Blackburn of the A’s against Sam Gaviglio of the Mariners. This will be the second big league start of Blackburn and the tenth for Gaviglio as both rookies have been called into duty due to injuries.
Blackburn was pitching well in Triple-A before the promotion and went six innings without allowing an earned run. He gave up three hits and one walk overall. Gaviglio has a much larger big league track record and has been a real blessing for an injury-riddled Seattle rotation. He’s 3-3 with a 3.48 ERA in 51.2 innings.
After the battling rookies on Thursday, the series turns to a pair of high-upside southpaws with Sean Manaea and James Paxton.
Paxton took the game by storm at the beginning of the year before landing on the DL like the rest of the Mariners’ rotation. Paxton allowed just one runs on two hits against the Angels in his last start, going 6.1 innings. He’s 6-3 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in 13 starts. He’s also striking out 9.9 per nine innings and has long been a big prospect for this team. At 28, he’s finally coming into his own.
Manaea is a few years younger and bit less polished, but he’s still 7-4 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.205 WHIP in 15 innings. He leads the A’s with 86.1 innings worked.
The southpaw went 7.1 innings in his last start, ultimately earning a no-decision against the Braves after allowing two runs.
We’re back to a pair of rookies on Saturday with Jharel Cotton against Andrew Moore.
Cotton made his debut last year, getting five starts. He dominated in that brief stint, earning a starting spot in 2017. He’s been much less consistent now that the league has adjusted. He’s 5-8 with a 5.17 ERA and has seen his walk rate jump. He’s now striking out just 2.09 per every walk.
Cotton has allowed at least four runs in three of his last five games. He’s also not one to go deep in the game, going more than six innings just twice in 14 starts. Oakland is 5-9 when he takes the ball.
Moore, on the other hand, will be making just his third start. He’s 1-1 in his first two, allowing six runs on 11 hits in 15 innings over his first two. His biggest issue in those games was the long ball. He’s allowed three homers in his short big league career. Oakland has power to hit it out if he continues to hang the ball.
These two teams will wrap up their first-halves on Sunday with Felix Hernandez and Daniel Gossett on the hill.
King Felix is still working his way back from his extended absence. He went six innings in his last start, but wasn’t himself. He gave up five runs on six hits. The main question is: can Hernandez return to form? The A’s offer a good opportunity at that. He’s won more games against Oakland than against any other team and has a career 2.68 ERA against them in 44 games.
As for Gossett, he is yet another rookie A’s hurler. In five starts, he’s just 1-3 with a 6.23 ERA. The 24-year old had a couple good outings in the middle of June, but has allowed five runs in back-to-back five-inning outings in his last two contests.
Betting Trends
The Mariners will host this series. They’re 25-20 at Safeco where they have a much more productive offense and where they’ve allowed 18 fewer runs than they have on the road, despite playing four more home games.
Seattle is also 16-16 since the start of June although they’re just 2-8 in their last 10 games. More concerning is all but three of those 10 games were at home. Most recently, the Mariners were just swept at home by the Royals.
Oakland has won back-to-back games heading into this series, but that was on the heels of a six-game losing streak and a 4-10 stretch.
The A’s are also a terrible road team. Their latest wins game at home.
Away from the O.co Coliseum, the Athletics are 13-27. That’s a .325 winning percentage.
If looking at the Pythagorean records for each team, we see the A’s out performing their run differential. They’ve allowed 452 runs, scoring just 369. The Mariners are more balanced with 413 runs scored and 422 allowed. They’ve still got a negative run differential, but it’s very close to even.
Power Potential
The A’s are the better home run hitting team. Both play in pitcher friendly parks, but that hasn’t stopped Oakland from slamming the ball out of the yard.
The Athletics have hit 121 homers to the Mariners’ 96. Since the start of June, the A’s have hit just two more homers than the Mariners.
While Oakland has the power advantage with Khris Davis, Yonder Alonso and Ryon Healy all hitting 19 homers or more, they’re well behind in team average and total runs scored.
Most of the team is hitting well below .250 though the A’s have been promoting some young prospects like Bruce Maxwell, Franklin Barreto and Matt Chapman to take over for struggling veterans like Stephen Vogt and Trevor Plouffe, both of whom are now on different teams. Still, this is a team with a .238 team average and .310 team OBP. Seattle is getting on base at a .333 clip and is batting .262 as a team.
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