At least Atlanta has been somewhat competitive on the road this season. All but two of the Braves’ wins this year have come away from home and they played the defending champion Royals tough in KC over the weekend. While still holding MLB’s worst record, the Braves have gotten some fine contributions from a young starting rotation.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Pirates closed a sub-par stretch within their own division on a high note, making it a bit easier to step away for the next three weeks. The MLB-worst Braves should make for an easy transition. The Pirates avoided a sweep at the hands of the NL Central-leading Cubs with Sunday’s 2-1 victory, capping a 6-8 stretch within the division.
Having played 23 of their first 36 games against division competition, the Pirates play their next 24 games outside the NL Central beginning with a four-game set with Atlanta. Pittsburgh is 12-11 against division foes but won’t face another until hosting St. Louis from June 10-12. Moving away from the most competitive division in the majors, the Pirates are looking to improve on their numbers.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Making just his third start of the season since being recalled from Triple-A, Mike Foltynewicz (1-1, 2.89 ERA) delivered a good one. He was fantastic in Saturday’s 5-0 win over the Royals, scattering seven hits in eight shutout innings with four strikeouts and no walks.
After a rough debut in which he allowed three home runs and four earned runs on eight hits in only 3.2 innings against the Mets, Folty has yielded just two earned runs in 15 innings over two starts since, with no walks and 12 strikeouts. Keep in mind that Foltynewicz had a horrific 5.71 ERA and an equally poor 1.63 WHIP in 86.2 innings last season.
Jeff Locke (1-3, 5.45 ERA) struggled in Saturday’s loss to the Cubs, giving up six runs and six hits over 5.1 innings. He was done in by a pair of home runs, just the fourth and fifth he’s allowed in 38.0 innings this season. Locke had tossed three straight quality starts before the Cubs got to him.
Locke and the Pirates are now winless in his last three starts. They look to break that string against the Braves, but the lefty needs to be a bit better. He’s won just one of his six starts against Atlanta and carries a 5.40 lifetime ERA across 31.2 innings.
LIVE BETTING
The Braves can play them close, but still can’t win. When you are the worst team in baseball and have yet to reach double figures in victories, the blame can be spread rather evenly. One glaring weakness the Braves have, though, is their inability to win close games and ones that go beyond the regulation nine innings.
Kendrys Morales hit a game-ending two-run homer with two out in the 13th inning and the Royals claimed the rubber game of the three-game weekend set with a 4-2 win on Sunday. With the loss the Braves fell to 0-6 in extra-inning games and 0-5 in games decided by two runs. Atlanta is also 0-5 in one-run games this season. The Braves also lost for the 18th time in 23 games and have won just one series this year.
QUICK PICK
The Braves have been playing better baseball but they have yet to see the results in the win-loss column. Aided by the addition of Foltynewicz, the starting rotation has a 2.85 ERA in the past 14 games, allowing just 28 earned runs in 88.1 innings. In his last outing, Folty became the first Braves pitcher in two years to throw at least eight shutout innings without issuing a free pass. And he could be facing a Pirates lineup without Starling Marte, who was placed on paternity leave.
Either way the chore is difficult and much tougher when your mates can’t score. The Braves are last in runs scored and home runs, and next to last with a .228 team batting average. They can make Locke look pretty good.
MLB Odds: Pittsburgh 4, Atlanta 2
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