Two powerful offenses square off in the final game of a three game series on Wednesday with plenty at stake for these AL East rivals. While offense is key for both teams, it’ll be the pitching that determines the outcome.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The first 12 games of this season series are split six games apiece.
Typically, home field is crucial against the Orioles. Baltimore has been a very good team at Camden Yards and is several games below .500 on the road. While that’s generally true, it hasn’t been the case against the Sox.
The Orioles are 4-2 against Boston at Fenway Park.
Overall, the Orioles have struggled with consistency yet they remain in the thick of things in the AL East race and the Wild Card standings. In the first six games of this nine game, three city road trip, the O’s have gone 4-2, taking a series in Tampa Bay and then playing very well in a series against Detroit.
As for the Sox, they’re 7-3 in their last ten games after their weekend set against fellow AL East contender, Toronto.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
In a battle of unexpected aces, the Orioles and Red Sox turn to a pair of right-handers in 25-yaear old Kevin Gausman and 27-year old Rick Porcello, respectively.
Gausman is just 7-10 this year, but has won his last four decisions. Interestingly, despite pitching pretty well early, he didn’t record a single win until June 25 as he pitched in tough luck, racking up the no decisions and losses.
His ERA has also been improving. He’s now got a 3.61 ERA after allowing just three runs in his last 25 innings, including four quality starts and three shutout performances. His pitching hasn’t been a result of great matchups either. He’s done it against strong offenses like the recently jumpstart Yankees, the Nationals and the Tigers.
Gausman hasn’t found much success against Boston this year. In two starts, he’s 0-2 with an 11.00 ERA in just nine innings, including a six run, three inning performance at Fenway Park. His career numbers are a bit better, but still not great. He’s 2-3 with a 4.74 career ERA against Boston in 12 games, including seven starts.
Guasman isn’t the only pitcher slated for Wednesday’s series finale to be throwing the ball well. Porcello just nabbed his 20th win and has won six straight decisions. He’s also led Boston to a 14-2 mark in his last 16 games.
Overall, Porcello is 20-3 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.022 WHIP in 193 2/3 innings. Boston is 15-games over-.500 in Porcello’s starts, leading to the majority of their 18-game over .500 record.
LIVE BETTING
While pitching is what’s going to make the difference, it’s important to note what the offenses are capable of doing.
For the Sox, this is as balanced an offense as there is in the game. They’ve outscored the next highest scoring AL team by 84 runs and offer power, speed, OBP and clutch hitting. Meanwhile, the Orioles are much more one-dimensional. They hit home runs; lots of them.
The O’s are first in all of baseball in homers by a considerable margin. Top to bottom, this lineup is capable of going yard with three batters with at least 34 bombs and six with at least 20. While that’s impressive, this team also racks up the strikeouts and can struggled to manufacture runs if the ball isn’t flying out of the park.
With the starting matchup of Gausman and Porcello, we should have a pretty good pitching duel through the first six innings and while both offenses can break things open in short order, provided both pitch as they have of late, this could come down to the bullpens.
The Orioles’ bullpen has arguably the best closer in the game right now in Zach Britton. He’s been nearly perfect this year, but rest of the bullpen has been struggling a bit lately. Brad Brach was an All-Star setup man and has a sub-2 ERA, but hasn’t been nearly has dominant. He’s allowed a few homers as he’s missed his location from time to time here in the second half. Mychal Givens meanwhile is lights out against righties, but often gets the chance to face lefties—and fails.
On the other side, Boston has Craig Kimbrel to match up with Britton and Brad Ziegler offers a bit more certainty right now in the eighth inning. Outside of those two, there are some lingering questions, but that may not matter the way Porcello is pitching.
QUICK PICK
Look for a close game with the Red Sox coming away on top. Despite these offenses’ potential, don’t look for a blow out, both starters are throwing well and there’s enough in both pens to keep the scoring reasonable.
All in all, the fact the Sox can manufacture runs better and offer more speed is the difference maker here. Good pitching can shut down good hitting, particularly when that good hitting is so one dimensional.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 5, Orioles 4
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