MLB Odds - Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Indians Game Preview

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Will the Cleveland Indians ever lose? The Baltimore Orioles sure hope so. The Birds need wins. They’re hanging on in the AL Wild Card race, but have a lot of ground to make up with very little time left to do so. The Indians, on the other hand, have elevated their game to new heights over the last few weeks. They’re now the team to beat in the AL.

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ODDS ANALYSIS

It’s amazing what a difference a couple of weeks can make. The Indians were the top dogs in the AL Central before their 14-game winning streak, but they’ve officially put any chance for the Twins to bed now. Instead, the eye is on a new prize: home field advantage throughout the postseason.

Cleveland went on a nice run at the end of the year last year despite a ton of injuries. That run took them all the way to the last out of the World Series.

Their current run started a bit earlier, but can it last? The injuries are nearly as crippling, but for this series at least, the Tribe will still be without Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley and Andrew Miller. The loss of those three hasn’t really hurt them recently.

On the Orioles’ side, this team is doing just enough to remain on the fringes of the postseason picture. They’ve looked over matched from time-to-time because of a fringy rotation. The power in the order and strong bullpen can only do so much to mitigate the issues of a rotation with a 5.58 ERA, second worst in all of baseball.

PROBABLE PITCHERS

The Orioles’ rotation, as mentioned above, is a complete mess. So much so that even with six starters, the team is giving a start to the young Gabriel Ynoa on Saturday. He had his own issues at Triple-A, but still seems like a better option than some.

Given the rotational shake up, Jeremey Hellickson gets pushed back to Sunday.

The right-hander has had a few good starts since joining the Orioles, but has generally been as bad as the rest of the bunch.

He’s a high contact pitcher. That’s fine if the balls stay on the ground. He has a good defensive infield behind him, but if he leaves the ball up, he can get hit hard. The O’s outfield defense isn’t great either.

In his seven starts with the O’s, Hellickson is 2-3 with a 6.87 ERA. Baltimore was hoping a change of scenery would help him regain his form from 2016, but instead he’s gotten worse. He’s trending in the wrong direction. He had back-to-back quality starts to begin his Orioles’ career, but has allowed six or more runs in three of his last five starts. His last start wasn’t one of them, but he went only 2.1 innings, giving up five.

On the other side, the Indians have a much better option: Trevor Bauer.

Bauer is a much easier matchup than Corey Kluber or Carlos Carrasco, but he’s Cleveland’s winningest pitcher going 15-8. His 4.39 ERA is serviceable and he’s really been on top of his game in the second half. Since the break, he’s 8-1 with a 3.05 ERA. His strikeouts are about the same, but he’s making better pitches overall, giving up fewer hard hit balls.

LIVE BETTING

The only edge the Orioles have in this game is their power. The Indians are a better overall team, even aside from the rotation.

The lineup presents a much better OBP and it’s not like it’s powerless. Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor—amongst others—can hit one out with the best of them.

The Orioles’ lineup, however, has six batters with at least 20 homers while Welington Castillo and Tim Beckham are knocking on the door.

Manny Machado leads the way with 32. He’s also got a good track record against Bauer with three homers and six total hits in nine at-bats.

If Manny and the O’s are to have a chance, they’ll need to get to Bauer early and get him to elevate his pitches. Otherwise, even with Miller out, the Indians have a tough bullpen with the best ERA in the sport. The Orioles’ bullpen is good, but the Indians’ is better.

QUICK PICK

You don’t need to look much further than the starting pitchers to pick this game. The Orioles don’t have enough power to make up for the Indians better average and on-base, let alone the gap in the rotation. They’re a step back in the pen, too.

If the O’s were at home, they might have had a chance. Their power plays up in that tiny park, but they’re 27-39 on the road. Even with Cleveland being a better road team, their 36-29 home record is still much better than Baltimore’s road mark.

The Orioles may hit a couple out and scratch across a couple runs, but that’s not enough. Look for the Indians to get to Hellickson early. He’s struggled in his last five starts and there’s nothing to indicate that’ll change. Meanwhile, Bauer is throwing well. Indians win easily.

MLB Odds: Indians 7, Orioles 3

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