One of the best bets the game has to offer will take on one of the worst on Friday night when the Baltimore Orioles head to Tropicana Field to match wits with the division rival Tampa Bay Rays in the opener of their three-game weekend set.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
After going through a rough patch in Seattle at the beginning of July, manager Buck Showalter’s rebounded nicely in closing the first half out with series wins over both the Dodgers in LA and Angels back at home. In doing so, they moved to 15 games over the breakeven point which has been good enough to check in as the No. 3 best bet in all of baseball. A $100 bettor has netted a hefty $1491 on their investment. However, the team has been a poor bet on the road where they’ve only managed wins in 18 pf 40 tries (-$141) – they’ll look to improve upon that record against the woeful Rays.
Twenty games under .500 is where Tampa Bay finds itself with the season at the midway point. While not the worst overall record, the money lost betting on this team is the most in the majors at -$2577. The club sits 10 games under .500 both at home (-$1569) and on the road (-$1008), and currently finds itself 17.5 games out of 1st place in the AL East. Anyone thinking about throwing a dollar on them at 200-1 to come back and win the division is better off just taking a Bic lighter to that George Washington.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
The best days for Yovani Gallardo are well behind him. That’s why it came as such a shock when Baltimore opted to fork over some big bucks to keep him on the roster through the 2017 season. While he owns a 3-1 record and the O’s have won six of his nine starts, the righty checks in with a bloated 5.82 ERA and sickening 1.68 WHIP over the course of his 43.1 total innings of work. Surprisingly, he’s been at his best within Camden Yards – which is known as a hitter’s park – and terrible on the road where his already gross Era jumps up to 7.83. He’s conceded 15 hits and 9 ER over his last 15 innings pitched across three starts.
Chris Archer cemented himself as being one of the premiere up and coming top end starting pitchers in the league last season after compiling a 3.23 ERA and striking out 252 batters through 212 innings pitched. He allowed just 175 hits and walked 66 during that stretch, but that hasn’t been the case in 2016 with him issuing 48 walks and allowing an average of one hit per every inning pitched. Because of it, his ERA sits above 4.60 for the first time since his rookie season in 2012. On top of that, his WHIP resides at 1.44. Tampa Bay has only won two of his seven home starts.
LIVE BETTING
Baltimore has dominated this season’s rivalry with the Rays, as they’ve won seven of the nine overall meetings and took two of three in their first visit to Tropicana Field back in late April.
As potent an offense as Baltimore possesses, it’s surprising to see the under cashing at a 6-2-1 clip in those contests with all three meetings in the Trop failing to surpass the closing number.
QUICK PICK
Scoring runs has been close to impossible for the Rays all season. Heading into the break, they owned the league’s No. 27 ranked scoring offense and averaged just 2.6 runs per game over their last seven games. That said, they can hit the long ball ranking No. 7 in that category, and Gallardo had served one up in each of his previous four starts before disallowing the Angels from going deep in his most recent start. Archer has had issues with Baltimore throughout his entire career in going 3-5 with a 4.48 ERA and .271 batting average against. However, I expect him to right the ship a bit here back at home where he’s been much better all season long.
MLB Odds: Rays 4, Orioles 3
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