The Houston Astros remain well ahead of the pack in the AL West and boast the best record in the American League, but relative inactivity at the trade deadline has brought controversy to this team. The one deal they did make was with the Toronto Blue Jays who they play in a best of three series beginning on Friday. The two teams split a four-game series earlier this year though the Astros outscored the Jays in that series 37-17.
This series will be contested from Friday, August 4, 2017 through Sunday, August 6, 2017 at Minute Maid Park in Houston.
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Pitching Matchups
The Astros’ rotation is the biggest question mark for the team and looking at those slated to take the hill this weekend, it’s no wonder why.
Dallas Keuchel can only pitching every fifth day and Lance McCullers Jr. is on the disabled list, leaving Brad Peacock, Charlie Morton and Mike Fiers to start Friday through Sunday respectively.
Peacock has been a huge blessing for this team. He’s been a swing guy and Four-A type player in his career, but the 29-year broke out this year and is 9-1 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.216 WHIP. His FIP is even 2.53 as his peripheral numbers are in line with his top line production.
The right-hander has been nearly unhittable. He is walking 4.9 batters per nine innings which keeps the opposition in the game as they continually have someone on base, but he’s gotten out of jams and has even seen his strikeout numbers spike, sitting down 101 on strikes in only 75.2 innings.
Peacock didn’t get a chance to start until mid-May. He’s pitched in 24 games with Houston going 16-8 in those games. He’s started 11 games and Houston is 9-2 in those starts. He’s thrown a quality start in just four of those starts, however, mostly due to shorter outings.
Peacock will give Houston five or six good innings, but that’s all that can be expected even assuming he can keep up his strong performance which is well above his career 4.14 ERA.
Moving on, Morton has been a surprise when healthy, too. The Astros signed him to a surprising two-year deal off just a handful of starts last year.
He’s made 15 starts in 2017 and is 9-4 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.223 WHIP. He’s striking out a ton of batters as well with 9.9 per nine innings, up for his career mark of 6.7.
Morton has had his share of appearances where he’s allowed four runs over five to six frames, but he’s combined to allow two runs on five hits in his last two games, spanning 13 innings.
Fiers is another mid-to-back-end of the rotation guy who has been overachieving for Houston. His overachievement can be represented in the delta between his ERA at 3.97 and his FIP of 5.17. The home runs and walks are what’s driving the difference.
Homers were a huge problem for Fiers early. He got things under control in June and strung together seven straight starts without a long ball allowed. Since then, he’s made five starts, giving up six of his 24 homers. That’s still a better pace than in April and May, but it’s concerning as he tends to allow the long balls when his pitches flatten out.
To counter the Astros’ middle-of-the-road trio, the Blue Jays will give Cesar Valez the ball on Friday with Marco Estrada pitching Saturday and Marcus Stroman closing the series out on Sunday.
Like Peacock, Valdez is a bit of a journeyman turned reliever, turned back to starter. The 32-year old has just 19 big league appearances, six coming with the Jays this year. Two of those six appearances have been starts. He also made four appearances with Oakland, including a start. Before that, his last taste of the Majors was 2010.
Valdez’s numbers at Triple-A were solid, but he’s had issues in the majors, posting a 6.59 ERA over 27.1 innings. His last appearance, a start, he allowed seven runs—six earned—in two innings against the Angels.
As for Estrada, it’s been a tough year for the veteran. He found himself after a spotty career when he got to the Jays and was good the last couple years. This year, he’s 4-7 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.442 WHIP. He pitched to an 8.87 ERA over the last two months before finally putting up a good start his last time out, holding the White Sox to one run in seven innings.
Estrada’s struggles are typical for this team. Most of the team has been injured or ineffective or both. One exception to that is Sunday’s starter: Macus Stroman.
Stroman looks like the pitcher we all expected last year. He’s 10-5 for a bad team and has a 3.19 ERA. His WHIP is a hit high for his ERA at 1.301 and his FIP is a little higher, too, at 3.88, but still strong.
Interestingly, the 26-year old’s strikeout to walk ratio is the lowest of his career, but he’s gotten outs other ways. Against Houston back in July, Stroman allowed one runs and six hits in seven innings.
Who's Hot?
Houston’s offense has been amazing all year and even with some injuries, the Astros have managed to score 100 runs in 18 post-All-Star games while putting up a .849 OPS.
The Astros are a versatile offense, able to hit for power, run and get on base as well as anyone.
Right now, Jose Altuve is scorching hot. He’s batting .421 in the second half with 11 extra base hits and 11 RBIs. He’s also swiped five bags.
Over the last 30-days, Altuve is hitting .470 with a .505 OBP and 1.215 OPS and 21 RBIs.
Evan Gattis and Marwin Gonzalez are swinging well, too. Gattis is batting .300 with five jacks in his last 16 games while Gonzalez has seen his workload increase given the injuries. He’s hitting .315 with five homers in his last 23 games.
In Toronto, things have continued to go well off plan. This whole season is a lost year for the Jays who have seen struggles across the board save for one player: Justin Smoak.
Smoak is still, well, smoking the ball. He’s hit nine homers in his last 26 games and has a 1.046 OPS in that time. In the second half he’s batting .342 with eight home runs. Steve Pearce has five homers and 13 RBIs since the break.
Who's Not?
Pitching, in general, has been an issue for the Astros since the All-Star break. The team is ranked second to last in the AL with a 5.49 ERA since that time, ahead of only the Rangers.
That’s some of the concern around Houston’s inability to add to the staff prior to the non-waiver trade deadline.
Tony Sipp and Michael Feliz have been bad. Both are now on the DL. Chris Devenski has been okay, but not the lockdown guy from the first half. He’s pitched 7.1 second half innings, allowing three runs and only striking out four.
At the plate, even with Houston still swinging well, there’s no doubt the team misses Carlos Correa and George Springer, both were MVP candidates before they got hurt given their first halves.
The downside for the Jays features Jose Bautista and Troy Tulowitzki. Joey Bats was supposed to have a bounce back year, but that hasn’t happened. We’re seeing the end for the slugger who is hitting .139 in the second half with 20 strikeouts in 79 at bats. Tulo is hitting .244, but has shown no power.
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